A strengthening El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean has already reached record intensity for this early stage, raising concerns among United Nations officials about its potential to exacerbate extreme weather patterns worldwide. Scientists at Columbia University reported that a key Pacific region used to gauge El Niño conditions has experienced its warmest and most intense level ever recorded for 15 consecutive weeks since the event began—a clear indication that the phenomenon is unusually powerful.
El Niño, a natural warming of sea surface temperatures near the equator in the central and eastern Pacific, typically disrupts global weather patterns, often triggering heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall, and storms. This particular El Niño is expected to develop further, likely peaking in late fall 2024, with effects continuing through the spring of 2027. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a U.N. agency, emphasized on Friday that the event may cause prolonged periods of extreme heat, drought, and irregular rainfall well into next year.
“The climate crisis is in overdrive,” U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said, highlighting that recent months have already seen unprecedented heatwaves, intense wildfires in parts of Europe, and numerous deaths tied to soaring temperatures. He warned that as El Niño strengthens, it will “add fuel to a planet already on fire.” Guterres also noted that despite ongoing geopolitical crises and misinformation campaignssupported by some fossil fuel interests, the climate threat remains urgent and is insufficiently addressed on the global stage.
Most climate models predict that this El Niño could become the most intense on record by its peak, though scientists caution that forecasting exact outcomes remains uncertain at this stage. Columbia University climate scientist Jeffrey Shaman indicated that the exceptionally warm conditions in the Pacific region foreshadow a potentially unprecedentedly hot summer in the Northern Hemisphere next year.
Before that, the strong El Niño is poised to alter rainfall patterns, causing chaotic weather extremes across various regions in the coming months. The WMO highlighted risks of drought and wildfire in parts of Asia, Australia, South America, and Africa, while other areas—including much of the United States and southern Europe, recently affected by wildfires—may experience above-average rainfall.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stressed the event, emerging amid historic ocean heat and rising global temperatures, provides an opportunity for governments and communities to prepare for and mitigate the risks ahead. While El Niño is a natural cycle, its effects interact dangerously with long-term climate change driven by fossil fuel emissions, amplifying the severity of weather events.
Guterres called for enhanced early warning systems and increased infrastructure to cope with extreme heat episodes but emphasized that halting fossil fuel consumption remains critical to averting a more volatile future. “More coal, oil and gas will lead to a more combustible future,” he said, urging stronger global political will to address the existential threat posed by the escalating climate crisis.