A new United Nations report highlights the United States as a significant contributor to the global failure to curb greenhouse gas emissions, putting the world on a trajectory toward greater warming than previously estimated. Released Wednesday, the annual Emissions Gap Report by the UN Environment Programme assesses global progress on climate change and warns that current pledges fall short of the targets set under the 2015 Paris Agreement.
The report attributes a substantial portion of the increased global emissions forecast to the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, a move announced in 2024 under the Trump administration. According to the report, if all countries meet their current commitments to reduce emissions, global temperatures are expected to rise approximately 2.2 degrees Celsius (4.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century—an increase of 0.2 degrees Celsius from last year’s predictions. The U.S. accounts for about half of this additional warming, having not only abandoned its previous emissions reduction pledge but also experienced a rise in emissions during 2025.
The report notes that among the 20 major industrialized economies responsible for most global emissions, the United States stands out as the primary exception to the overall trend of slowing pollution growth. Increased electricity demand, partly linked to the rapid expansion of data centers for artificial intelligence, alongside a colder winter in North America that boosted fossil fuel use for heating, contributed to a 133 million-ton rise in U.S. carbon dioxide emissions last year. This increase surpassed the combined emissions growth of all other nations that year.
While many countries, including most European nations, have either reduced or slowed the growth of their carbon output, the U.S. has simultaneously promoted greater fossil fuel production and rolled back environmental regulations. These policy changes include the elimination of limits on emissions from fossil-fuel power plants and the withdrawal of government support for renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power.
Critics argue that the U.S. approach not only endangers global climate goals but also undermines international efforts. Australian climate scientist Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, described U.S. policies as actively promoting coal and attempting to dissuade other nations from advancing their climate actions.
The UN Secretary-General António Guterres stressed the urgency, stating that the world is falling "dangerously short" of meeting climate targets but affirmed that available tools could still enable a change in course. Projections indicate that if no additional efforts are made, global temperatures could rise as high as 5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2100, far exceeding the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius, preferably 1.5 degrees.
A White House spokesperson criticized the UN report, characterizing it as an expression of undue pressure on countries to meet what was described as arbitrary climate goals at the expense of economic and national security considerations. The spokesperson also suggested that the warming projections assume continuation of policies akin to those under the Trump administration beyond the end of his term.
Overall, the report paints a stark picture of the climate challenges ahead, emphasizing that achieving global temperature goals requires renewed commitments and decisive action, especially from the United States, a leading emitter.