A United Nations report released Wednesday highlights a significant shortfall in global efforts to meet the climate targets established under the 2015 Paris Agreement, warning that the world is on track for a 2.6 degrees Celsius increase in average temperatures this century. The assessment by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) underscores the widening gap between international commitments and the concrete actions needed to curb planet-heating emissions.
According to the annual Emissions Gap Report, even if countries fully implement their current climate pledges, global temperatures are projected to rise well beyond the Paris goals of limiting warming to "well below" 2 degrees Celsius and pursuing the safer target of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The report states that the chance of keeping warming within 1.5 degrees has been effectively lost due to decades of inadequate emissions reductions.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the world has passed the point of avoiding an overshoot of the 1.5-degree threshold, with severe consequences already manifesting. He cited an increase in extreme weather events—including deadly floods, intense heatwaves, and widespread wildfires—as well as substantial economic damage and growing inequalities affecting the most vulnerable populations first and worst.
The report shows that global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 remain close to record highs recorded in 2024. Emissions from burning fossil fuels—coal, oil, and gas—rose slightly last year compared with the previous year. UNEP officials emphasized that current policies and climate plans remain insufficient, with global emissions at historic levels and insufficient progress toward reduction targets. Under current policies alone, the planet would warm by approximately 2.8 degrees Celsius by 2100.
Scientists warn that every increment above 1.5 degrees Celsius heightens the frequency and severity of extreme weather and risks triggering irreversible environmental changes, such as coral reef die-offs and permafrost thawing. The world’s average temperature has already increased about 1.4 degrees since pre-industrial times, putting the 1.5-degree limit in reach within a few years.
The report’s worsening outlook compared with last year is partly attributed to factors including the United States’ formal withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and revised estimates of historical emissions. Emissions growth among the Group of 20 (G20) major economies has generally slowed, but the United States represents a significant exception, with emissions rising by 133 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent in 2025. This increase resulted from growing electricity demand and expanded coal-fired power generation. Other top emitters showed varying trends: Indonesia and China recorded increases, while India, Russia, and the European Union saw declines.
Turkey, the host country for the upcoming COP31 climate summit scheduled for November 9 to 20 in Antalya, registered the next-largest emissions increase after the United States. While the U.S. remains the world’s second-largest emitter behind China, President Donald Trump’s administration has dismissed climate change as a hoax and reversed several clean energy initiatives to promote fossil fuel production.
UNEP Executive Secretary Inger Andersen refrained from singling out any single country, emphasizing that all nations, particularly those within the G20, bear significant responsibility for reducing carbon emissions. Andersen highlighted the urgent need to deploy an additional 5,000 gigawatts of renewable energy worldwide within five years to help limit temperature increases.
The report outlines a challenging scenario with a 50% probability of returning global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. Achieving this would require warming to peak near 1.8 degrees by 2050 and then decline through large-scale removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This pathway demands an immediate and sustained annual cut in emissions of six percent until 2035, a pace far exceeding current forecasts.
Climate-vulnerable developing countries have criticized major emitters for abandoning the 1.5-degree goal, setting the stage for a contentious debate at COP31. Mohamed Adow, director of the Kenya-based think tank Power Shift Africa, called the situation a “historic failure of political leadership,” stressing that the science has been clear for decades while governments continue to delay meaningful action. He warned that the consequences will be measured not only in temperature rise but also in lives lost.