United Airlines raised its full-year profit forecast on Wednesday, citing robust revenue growth that is helping offset the challenges posed by fluctuating jet fuel costs. The airline now expects adjusted earnings to reach between $9 and $11 per share in 2026, increasing the lower end of its previous guidance by $2 per share. This outlook aligns with analyst expectations, which had been leaning toward the higher end of United’s range.
Despite industry-wide pressures from volatile fuel prices linked to geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict involving Iran, demand for air travel has remained resilient. This steady demand, combined with increased airfares, is providing United and other carriers with some protection against rising fuel expenses.
For the third quarter, United forecasts adjusted earnings in the range of $2.50 to $3.50 per share, slightly below the $3.53 per share anticipated by analysts surveyed by FactSet. The updated projections factor in a recent surge in jet fuel prices following the breakdown of the U.S. ceasefire with Iran. On Tuesday, jet fuel costs rose to $3.64 per gallon from around $2.81 per gallon in early July. United’s guidance for third-quarter fuel costs is $3.69 per gallon, representing an additional expense of about $575 million, or $1.12 per share.
In its second-quarter results, United reported a net profit of $805 million, or $2.46 per share, down from $2.97 per share in the same period a year earlier. Excluding one-time items, adjusted earnings were $1.99 per share, exceeding analyst expectations of $1.88 per share. The airline paid an average of $4.19 per gallon for jet fuel in the quarter, pushing fuel costs up 84% year over year to $5.11 billion.
Total revenue for the quarter rose 16% to $17.67 billion, surpassing estimates of $17.62 billion. Revenue growth was driven by a 3.5% increase in capacity and higher fares across all classes. Premium cabin revenue climbed 16%, while sales of basic economy seats increased 11%. Other revenue streams also showed strong performance, with MileagePlus loyalty program income up 11%, freight and mail transportation revenue jumping 23%, and corporate travel and contracted business revenue soaring 27%.
Looking ahead, United expects to recoup 80% to 90% of its elevated fuel costs in the third quarter and potentially recover 100% by the fourth quarter. The company’s results follow a strong report from rival Delta Air Lines, which also saw second-quarter revenue rise on higher fares and sustained demand. United and Delta continue to lead the industry in profitability as other major carriers prepare to release their earnings this month.