The United Nations weather agency has issued a warning about the likelihood of a strong El Niño weather event developing later in 2026, which could have widespread impacts on global weather patterns. El Niño, characterized by a warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, influences atmospheric conditions around the world, affecting temperature, precipitation, and storm activity.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is an approximately 90 percent chance that El Niño will develop by the end of this year, with a probability rising to 80 percent for onset between June and August, and continuing through at least November. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has also issued an El Niño watch, forecasting a 96 percent likelihood of the event peaking between December 2026 and February 2027.
U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres highlighted the risks associated with this emerging climate pattern, cautioning that it could amplify extreme weather events worldwide. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo further emphasized the need for preparedness, noting that a strong El Niño could exacerbate droughts, heavy rainfall, and heatwaves on land and in the ocean.
El Niño is part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, which alternates between El Niño and La Niña phases every two to seven years. This upcoming event is expected to be at least moderate in strength, with some models indicating a potentially strong episode. With global temperatures already elevated due to climate change, the additional warming from El Niño raises the possibility that 2027 could rank among the hottest years on record.
The impacts of El Niño vary regionally. Warmer Pacific waters tend to increase atmospheric convection, potentially leading to more hurricanes in the Pacific basin. Conversely, cooler conditions over the Atlantic are associated with suppressed hurricane development, often resulting in less active hurricane seasons for the United States. The shift in trade winds—replacing typical easterly winds with bursts of westerly winds—pushes warm water towards the western coasts of South America. This alters oceanic upwelling, reducing nutrient availability and harming fish populations critical to Central American and South American coastal communities.
Drought conditions are forecasted for southern Africa, Australia, India, the Indochina peninsula, and Oceania. In contrast, Southeast Asia may experience above-average rainfall with increased flooding risks. In the United States, projections suggest a stronger and more direct west-to-east jet stream across the southern states during winter, which could bring wetter and more severe weather along the Gulf Coast, while northern states might see warmer and drier conditions leading to a milder winter.
These predictions underscore the far-reaching implications of El Niño, highlighting the importance of coordinated global and regional responses to mitigate its potential impacts.