Kurt Campbell, a veteran U.S. diplomat and strategist known for shaping Washington’s policy on China and the Indo-Pacific, recently discussed the evolving dynamics of China-U.S. relations and broader regional security challenges in an interview. As chairman and co-founder of The Asia Group, a strategic advisory firm based in Washington, Campbell addressed key issues including competition, cooperation, artificial intelligence (AI), Taiwan, and regional alliances.
Campbell emphasized that both the United States and China recognize the importance of stabilizing their complex relationship amid increasing strategic competition. He noted that while elements of rivalry remain, there is a mutual interest in maintaining a working dialogue, driven by both competitive and cooperative motives. He stressed the U.S. advantage derives largely from collaboration with allies and partners rather than unilateral dominance.
Regarding technological competition, Campbell highlighted the complicated prospects for U.S.-China cooperation on AI. He pointed out that President Donald Trump’s insistence on U.S. dominance complicates efforts to establish genuine collaboration. Campbell underscored the risks associated with rapid AI development and the importance of joint dialogue on safety and regulation, noting that AI laboratories now act as dominant economic actors alongside governments. He expressed concern over bipartisan anxiety in the U.S. about AI’s potential threats, including the possible existential risks identified by leading engineers.
Turning to Taiwan, Campbell underscored the longstanding success of the status quo framework in maintaining peace and stability despite tensions. He supported continued strategic ambiguity paired with tactical clarity, cautioning against public speculation on potential military responses that could exacerbate distrust. Said he expects the United States to maintain strong unofficial relations with Taiwan while managing the situation with care and dexterity. Campbell also warned that treating arms sales to Taiwan as a negotiable item could undermine the credibility that has helped preserve cross-strait stability. He sees value in crisis management, military communications, and risk reduction as shared interests between Washington and Beijing.
Campbell described Japan as a vital, though modest, U.S. partner balancing defense postures amid challenges from China and North Korea. He called for robust communication between Tokyo and Beijing and rejected the notion that Japan is simply a tool of U.S. policy. He noted Japan faces domestic opposition to military assertiveness despite gradual modernization efforts aimed at regional security. Campbell encouraged increased diplomatic engagement between China and Japan.
On broader regional security architectures, Campbell noted the importance of multilateral groupings such as the Quad (comprising the United States, Japan, Australia, and India) in addressing non-military challenges like maritime security, technological development, and disaster response. He rejected the idea that such partnerships are solely aimed at containing China and highlighted their role in fostering strategic trust and practical cooperation. Although the Quad has not been institutionalized at the leader level recently, Campbell suggested it remains relevant for regional stability regardless of U.S.-China relations.
Campbell acknowledged challenges in U.S. engagement with regional institutions such as the East Asia Summit and ASEAN Regional Forum, noting underutilization especially during the Trump administration. He advocated for stronger U.S. participation in multilateral diplomacy to enhance national power and maintain influence in the Indo-Pacific.
Regarding changes in U.S. military nomenclature, Campbell was uncertain why the Indo-Pacific Command name reverted to Pacific Command but noted the initial “Indo-Pacific” concept was championed by Japan’s late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and embraced by parts of the U.S. government.
On Southeast Asian countries’ concerns about choosing between the U.S. and China, Campbell stressed that the most effective U.S. policy supports flexible engagement and strengthens regional institutions without forcing binary choices. He acknowledged the deep commercial ties between Beijing and Southeast Asia alongside strong U.S. relationships.
Finally, Campbell addressed Hong Kong’s evolving role as a financial hub linking China to the global economy. While acknowledging the city’s increasing integration with mainland China, he affirmed Hong Kong’s continued importance as a dynamic and critical financial center in the Indo-Pacific region alongside emerging competitors such as Singapore and Tokyo.