Washington — Several US allies have expressed privately that the Strait of Hormuz remains likely to be mined despite President Donald Trump’s assertions that the US Navy has removed all explosives planted by Iran. These assessments suggest that efforts to clear the strategically critical waterway have made progress but have not fully eliminated the threat posed by mines.
Individuals familiar with internal evaluations, speaking on condition of anonymity, estimate that between 80 and 150 mines laid by Iranian forces may still be present in the strait. This contradicts repeated statements by President Trump who, on August 25, described the Strait of Hormuz as “a very functioning strait” and insisted that all mines had been cleared. “The mines are gone. You probably saw that—we put it out yesterday—all the mines, we got rid of the mines,” Trump said during an appearance on The Glenn Beck Programme.
US Central Command (Centcom) declined on August 26 to comment on the specific mine estimates. The Trump administration has emphasized the strait's presumed safety as part of a broader effort to steady energy markets amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and ahead of the November midterm elections. Despite some easing from recent peaks, oil prices remain elevated, and fuel costs are high, with Americans facing record prices at the pump for this time of year.
Industry sources report that fuel cargoes have been navigating the strait with greater difficulty than crude oil shipments, exacerbating supply constraints worsened by Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries. Allied officials caution that the demining process is complicated by the fact that many mines are believed to have shifted from their original clustered positions due to sea currents, increasing the challenge of detection and removal.
To restore confidence among commercial shippers, allied representatives advocate for an international operation combining advanced demining technology with air and naval escort. They have called on Iran to permit Oman to lead a clearance mission within Omani territorial waters to safeguard vessels from potential attacks.
Becca Wasser, defense lead at Bloomberg Economics, described the situation as “highly unlikely” to be fully resolved. She noted that even if the mine threat diminishes, Iran retains the capability to escalate hostilities, given that numerous commercial vessels remain vulnerable to Iranian drones and short-range missiles, often operating beyond the reach of US air defenses.
In congressional testimony in May, Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of Centcom, reported that US military strikes had destroyed over 90 percent of Iran’s estimated inventory of roughly 8,000 naval mines in storage. Earlier in the year, Centcom stated that two US destroyers had transited the strait as part of broader efforts to ensure navigation channels were clear of Iranian mines.
Despite increased vessel movement through the narrow waterway, maritime traffic has yet to return to levels seen before the current conflict. The United States has encouraged commercial shipping to pass along the safer Omani side of the strait. On August 26, the International Maritime Organisation issued a reminder urging maximum caution and advising seafarers to avoid unnecessary risks when transiting the Strait of Hormuz.