The United States cattle industry has voiced strong opposition to President Donald Trump’s recent efforts to lower beef prices through increased imports, warning that such measures do not address underlying supply issues and instead harm domestic producers.

Retail beef prices in the U.S. reached an average of $9.64 per pound in September, up from roughly $6 per pound in 2020, driven by sustained demand for protein amid constrained cattle supplies. By comparison, pork and chicken remain significantly less expensive, averaging $4.89 and $2.37 per pound respectively, according to USDA data. The U.S. cattle herd is currently at a 75-year low, with the number of cattle slaughtered dropping 7.4% in the first seven months of 2025 compared to the previous year.

In September, the Trump administration announced it would permit up to 300,000 metric tonnes of ground beef imports without tariffs, asserting these imports would be sold at prices 25% below current market levels. The move is part of a broader strategy to ease retail prices but has drawn criticism from industry representatives.

Kent Bacus, executive director of government affairs for the U.S. National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, emphasized at this week’s Red Meat Sector Conference in Wellington that the cattle industry prefers market-driven pricing rather than government interventions. Bacus noted the association’s traditionally cooperative relationship with New Zealand, highlighting the complementary trade where lean New Zealand beef trimmings are combined with fattier U.S. cuts to satisfy ground beef demand. He affirmed that the quality and safety of New Zealand beef support its reputation in the American market.

Bacus criticized recent U.S. policy steps as disruptive, stating government actions have depressed cattle futures prices and caused significant declines in producer income—some losses reaching $350 to $400 per head. Although many producers maintain support for President Trump, they object to the administration’s import policies and public comments on beef pricing, which Bacus said "negate" prior supportive measures designed to aid smaller businesses.

The U.S. first lowered trade barriers on beef imports from Argentina last year, a move that also sparked industry concern due to Argentina’s history with foot-and-mouth disease. Bacus described the renewed import allowances as reopening industry tensions.

Speaking at the same conference, Greg Foran, CEO of The Kroger Co. and former Air New Zealand chief executive, outlined challenges facing U.S. retailers amidst rising red meat prices. Kroger, which operates 2,700 stores nationwide, saw total sales of $147.6 billion in 2025. Foran noted consumers still seek red meat but increasingly factor “value” into purchasing decisions: while some may splurge on premium cuts like tomahawk steaks, others will opt for more affordable ground beef products.

Meanwhile, New Zealand’s farmgate prices for red meat remain strong, with Beef + Lamb New Zealand projecting beef prices to stay elevated into the next season despite an expected 4.5% decline from recent peaks. The country anticipates a 7.8% increase in cattle exports in 2026/27, driven by higher processing volumes of bulls and heifers.

Analyst Brett Stuart of Global AgriTrends described the U.S. beef market as “red hot,” fueled by factors like post-pandemic stimulus, a growing consumer focus on protein, and new dietary trends promoting beef as a safe and nutritious option. He predicted that tight supplies and high prices will persist through 2026/27 and may not ease until 2028/29, when herd sizes are expected to expand significantly. After a hypothetical herd liquidation phase in the early 2030s, prices may stabilize and rise again toward the mid-2030s.