Virginia’s governor, Abigail Spanberger, signed legislation on Tuesday that brings the United States closer to adopting a national popular vote system for presidential elections. With Virginia’s entry, the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact now includes states and the District of Columbia representing 222 electoral votes, a significant step toward reaching the 270-electoral vote threshold required for the compact to take effect.
The compact is an agreement among participating states to allocate their presidential electors to the candidate who wins the most votes nationwide, rather than the candidate who wins the popular vote within each individual state. Once enacted by states collectively holding a majority of the 538 electoral votes, the compact would effectively determine the next president based on the national popular vote, bypassing the current Electoral College system.
Seventeen states and the District of Columbia have already joined the compact, most of which hold Democratic electoral majorities, including California, New York, and Illinois. In addition to these, proposed legislation seeking to join the compact is pending in several key swing states such as Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. If these efforts succeed, the compact will surpass the critical 270-electoral vote mark needed to activate the agreement.
The legal foundation for the compact rests on two constitutional provisions. Article II, Section 1 grants each state the authority to appoint electors in the manner directed by its legislature, without requiring a popular vote. Article I, Section 10, Clause 3 allows states to enter into binding interstate compacts, with the caveat that congressional approval is necessary only if the compact encroaches upon federal authority. Proponents argue that since states control the method of selecting electors, this agreement does not infringe on federal powers and thus should not require congressional consent. However, this interpretation could face judicial challenges if and when the compact reaches the 270-electoral vote threshold.
Public opinion appears to favor reform: a 2024 survey by the Pew Research Center indicated that 63% of Americans support replacing the Electoral College with a national popular vote system, while 35% oppose such a change.
Advocacy groups promoting the compact cite historical instances where the winner of the national popular vote did not become president. For example, George W. Bush in 2000 and Donald Trump in 2016 both lost the popular vote but secured the presidency through the Electoral College. According to Stand Up America, a nonprofit pushing for national popular vote reform, there have been nearly a dozen additional elections where slim margins in a few states could have altered the overall outcome.
Supporters emphasize that the compact aims to ensure every vote holds equal weight, regardless of where a voter lives. “We’ll continue our state-by-state work until the candidate who wins the most popular votes is elected president and every voter is treated equally in every presidential election,” said John Koza, chairman of National Popular Vote.
Critics of the compact remain concerned about potential constitutional conflicts and the broader implications of bypassing the traditional Electoral College framework, though no formal opposition statements were immediately available following Virginia’s recent legislative action.