In the months leading up to President Xi Jinping’s visit to the United States in 2026, Xi sought to underscore personal ties with Iowa farmers through a letter sent in February, seven months before his planned White House meeting with President Donald Trump. Addressed to longtime acquaintances and participants in a youth exchange program, the letter emphasized the importance of people-to-people connections as the foundation of US-China relations, expressing hope that these grassroots ties would endure despite political challenges.
The Iowa Soybean Association’s senior director of market development, Luca Berrone, along with other local figures, perceived the letter as a symbolic gesture aimed at maintaining goodwill and reminding both sides of long-standing relationships. However, while the sentiment was welcomed, it did not translate into immediate changes in trade policy or market conditions, leaving agricultural exports to China significantly weakened.
US farm exports to China fell sharply from $24.5 billion in 2024 to $8.4 billion in 2025, with soybeans experiencing the steepest decline—from $12.6 billion to around $3 billion—due to Chinese buyers turning to Brazil amid ongoing tariffs and trade tensions. Official data showed no US soy shipments to China for several months in late 2025, and analysis by North Dakota State University estimated that Chinese retaliatory measures cost US agriculture nearly $15 billion between March 2025 and February 2026. Iowa, along with California and Illinois, each absorbed losses of approximately $1.2 billion.
Despite efforts to revive trade, including China’s pledge in late 2025 to purchase 25 million tonnes of US soybeans annually through 2028, US products continue to face a 10 percent tariff, making Brazilian soybeans more competitive. New sales resumed just before the summit, but many farmers remain cautious, viewing China less as a reliable partner and more as an unpredictable market.
Experts on US-China relations suggest Xi’s letter was a strategic move to preserve a channel of communication with American citizens as part of a broader effort to improve bilateral ties. It followed a period of strained diplomacy, including tensions over Taiwan, and coincided with signs of renewed Chinese purchases of US agricultural goods. However, some observers note the letter attracted limited attention within Iowa and the broader United States, reflecting a disconnect between official overtures and local sentiment.
Political dynamics within Iowa further complicate the relationship. While youth exchange programs between Iowa and Hebei province continue, other areas of institutional cooperation have faced scrutiny amid concerns about Chinese influence. For example, state lawmakers have investigated university partnerships with China, and legislation restricting the hiring of Chinese nationals has been introduced.
The trade war and retaliatory tariffs have altered perceptions among farmers, who express frustration that agricultural goods have become leverage in geopolitical conflicts. At recent regional gatherings, farmers voiced skepticism that increased Chinese purchases linked to the presidential visit would provide lasting relief, viewing such deals as political gestures rather than durable economic commitments. Some contend that agriculture should not be a bargaining chip in diplomacy and worry that promises of expanded trade have yet to materialize fully.
As Xi’s visit unfolded in Washington, its symbolism was noted by both Chinese and American leaders, but many in the US farming community remained focused on immediate economic realities rather than diplomatic pageantry. The true measure of the visit's impact will likely depend on whether consistent trade and market access can be restored beyond the summit’s announcements.