The United States experienced an unexpected widening of its goods trade deficit in September, reaching its highest level since March 2025. According to the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau, the goods trade shortfall increased by 2.1%, or $2.8 billion, to $134.9 billion. This expansion was driven primarily by a surge in imports, which rose 2.4% to $344.1 billion, fueled in large part by a sharp increase in capital goods linked to investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure.

Imports of capital goods jumped 7.5% in September and surged 77.2% on a year-over-year basis, reflecting strong demand for technology-related hardware sourced from overseas. Consumer goods imports also rose significantly, climbing 31% during the month, while imports of other goods increased 6.7%. In contrast, imports of industrial supplies—including petroleum—fell 6.0%, and there were declines in imports of food and motor vehicles.

Exports also contributed to growth, rising 2.6% to $209.2 billion. Notable increases were seen in food shipments, which soared 12.8%, as well as in capital goods exports, which grew 5.4%. Consumer product exports advanced 6.5%, though exports of motor vehicles and industrial supplies declined.

Economists expressed concern that the widening goods trade deficit represents a significant drag on economic growth in the third quarter. Some analysts estimate the trade shortfall subtracted as much as four percentage points from gross domestic product (GDP) growth during the period. Estimates from Pantheon Macroeconomics place the trade-related GDP drag at around four percentage points, while Oxford Economics estimates a 3.25-point impact. This marks the third consecutive quarter during which trade has failed to contribute positively to GDP.

Despite the trade deficit’s negative impact, broader economic indicators signal continued strength in underlying demand. Robust business investment, particularly in AI-related sectors, and resilient consumer spending have supported growth. Daniel Vielhaber, an economist at Nationwide, noted that the trade figures reflect strength rather than weakness, driven by sustained business investment and consumer momentum.

Some of the increased imports appear to have contributed to higher inventories rather than immediate sales, which may mitigate the overall impact on GDP. Wholesale inventories increased by 0.6% in September, while retail inventories rose 0.3%. Inventories at motor vehicle and parts dealers rose 0.2%, and excluding vehicles, retail stockpiles increased 0.4%. These inventory build-ups are factored into GDP calculations and could soften some of the trade deficit’s negative effects.

Prior to the release of the latest trade and inventory data, economists surveyed expected the U.S. economy to grow at an annualized rate of 3.2% in the third quarter, following 2.2% growth in the second quarter. However, recent data have prompted revisions to growth forecasts. Oliver Allen, senior U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, suggested that growth closer to 1% is now more likely, although he noted considerable uncertainty in estimating the quarter’s headline GDP figure.