The United States is projected to exceed $6 trillion in total health care spending in 2026, driven in large part by rising costs for prescription medications, according to a report released Wednesday by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). Prescription drug expenditures alone are expected to surpass $560 billion, marking an 8.2 percent increase from 2025 and outpacing growth in other categories of health care spending.
A significant portion of this increase is attributed to the growing demand for glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists, drugs commonly prescribed for obesity and diabetes management. These medications have seen a surge in popularity since the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved Wegovy, produced by Novo Nordisk A/S, for chronic weight management in 2021.
John Poisal, deputy director of the National Health Statistics group at CMS, noted during a briefing that the rapid growth in GLP-1 drug use is expected to slow by around 2030 as market saturation occurs. The rising use of these medications was highlighted in a 2025 poll by the Kaiser Family Foundation, which found that nearly 20 percent of U.S. adults reported having taken a GLP-1 drug at some point, with about one-quarter of respondents indicating they had paid for these drugs out-of-pocket.
Out-of-pocket spending for prescription drugs is also projected to rise by 5 percent in 2025, reflecting the costs consumers bear directly, particularly for obesity and diabetes treatments. This increase underscores ongoing challenges related to drug affordability despite insurance coverage.
The report additionally addressed the potential impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, enacted in July 2025. Signed into law by then-President Donald Trump, the legislation introduced work and other eligibility requirements for Medicaid coverage, which are anticipated to reduce enrollment in the program. These policy changes could influence broader health care spending and insurance coverage patterns through the remainder of Trump’s presidency.
Overall, the CMS data suggest that escalating costs associated with prescription medications, especially GLP-1 drugs, will remain a key driver of the nation’s health care expenditures in the coming years, prompting continued scrutiny of affordability and access issues.