Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese arrived at this year’s Pacific Islands Forum in Koror, Palau, anticipating progress in regional security cooperation and strengthened ties between Australia and its Pacific neighbors. However, the session has been overshadowed by heightened tensions related to China’s growing influence in the region and the absence of several key leaders, complicating efforts to address security challenges.

The backdrop to this year’s forum includes lingering friction from 2022, when China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s proposal for a regional security framework was sidelined. Beijing appeared poised to face similar resistance again at the Palau meeting. Palau’s President, Surangel Whipps Jr., sought to advance a resolution condemning a recent Chinese missile test that landed in waters between Nauru, the Solomon Islands, and Tuvalu. Meanwhile, Solomon Islands Prime Minister Matthew Wale proposed a regional security agreement that aimed to counterbalance China’s bilateral security pacts and build on Australia’s existing agreements with Pacific nations.

Palau’s alignment as a Taiwan ally, which grants Taipei greater prominence at the forum, further heightened Beijing’s concerns. Although direct evidence is limited, New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters suggested that Chinese President Xi Jinping’s influence was evident in the disruptions and unexpected developments during the meeting.

A significant disruption was the abrupt departure of Solomon Islands Prime Minister Wale, who returned home to address an internal leadership challenge reportedly encouraged by pro-China factions linked to the former government. Wale has been instrumental in recalibrating Solomon Islands’ foreign relations closer to Australia since the country switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 2019.

Several other notable absences further diminished the forum’s capacity to confront Beijing diplomatically. Fiji Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka, a key figure in Pacific regionalism and pivotal to Australia-Pacific security arrangements, was absent. Kiribati President Taneti Maamau, whose country also shifted recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 2019 and is considering constitutional amendments to solidify this change, did not attend. Samoan Prime Minister La’auli Leuatea Schmidt, perceived as more accommodating toward China than his predecessor Fiame Mata’afa, and Vanuatu Prime Minister Jotham Napat, who has softened elements of Vanuatu’s security pact with Australia, were also missing.

These absences have curtailed the forum’s ability to mount a unified response to China’s activities. While Australia's role as a regional partner remains valued, Pacific nations do not share Canberra’s concerns to the same degree, in part because Australia’s support lacks punitive repercussions. In contrast, China’s approach leverages a mix of economic incentives and implicit threats, creating a dynamic where fear of upsetting Beijing outweighs the consequences of displeasing Australia.

Underlying the regional tensions is the overarching question of great-power influence. The United States, another dominant actor in the Pacific, has been notably absent from this year’s discussions and has, according to analysts, alienated smaller Pacific states through policies that challenge international norms and hinder collective regional goals, including climate commitments and ocean resource management.

China’s growing sway, enabled in part by a lack of credible pushback from other powers, presents a persistent challenge for Australia. Canberra’s ability to act as Washington’s regional partner is undermined by the perception that the United States is disengaged and inconsistent in its Pacific strategy, leaving Australia as the de facto steward without the backing of a fully engaged global power.