Negotiations to redefine the framework of U.S.-Israel military cooperation are set to begin in May, marking a shift from traditional military aid agreements toward a model emphasizing joint partnership. Sources in Israel confirmed that the talks, which will shape the bilateral relationship for the coming decade, are expected to last approximately four months and conclude before Israel’s elections in October and the U.S. midterm elections in November.

Historically focused on maintaining or increasing military aid—a practice dating back to the 1980s—these upcoming discussions represent a departure as they are anticipated to explore a gradual phasing out of direct U.S. military assistance over about a decade. This timeline coincides with the customary ten-year Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) cycles between the two countries, with the current MoU running from January 2019 to 2029 and the next slated for 2029 to 2039.

Officials acknowledge that the pace of technological change and emerging security threats require greater flexibility in how funds are allocated, signaling a move toward collaborative development of advanced defense systems. Israeli officials have indicated that proposed joint projects may include laser air defense technologies, countermeasures against hypersonic missiles, and expanded use of artificial intelligence. Previously mentioned—but not officially confirmed—potential areas for collaboration also include quantum computing, space capabilities, and robotics.

Key participants on the Israeli side will include Defense Ministry Director-General Maj. Gen. (res.) Amir Baram, Ambassador to the U.S. Yechiel Leiter, as well as representatives from the Israeli Defense Forces, Finance Ministry, and National Security Council. The American delegation reportedly will be led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, with senior advisers and the U.S. Ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, playing key roles.

The negotiations come amid a shifting political environment in Washington, where bipartisan skepticism toward foreign military aid, including aid to Israel, has grown. Recently, a significant number of Senate Democrats opposed arms sales to Israel, reflecting broader concerns within the party. In May 2024, the Biden administration partially froze some weapons sales to Israel after the IDF’s ground operation in Rafah, a move that highlighted tensions in U.S. policy. Meanwhile, some Republicans have also called for curbing aid, following reductions to foreign assistance implemented during the Trump administration.

In response to these changing dynamics, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has unveiled plans to substantially boost the national defense budget—by around NIS 35 billion annually—to enhance indigenous production of munitions and military technologies. This initiative aims to lessen Israel’s reliance on U.S. aid and circumvent logistical challenges encountered during the Rafah operation, when concerns over depleting American-supplied munitions reportedly influenced military decision-making.

Nevertheless, considerable debate remains about whether increased domestic spending can fully compensate for a reduction in U.S. military aid. Notably, Israel’s defense industry does not produce fighter jets, making the continuation of U.S. sales of F-35 aircraft a critical concern for maintaining regional air superiority.

The idea of transitioning from aid to partnership was publicly advanced by Netanyahu amid these evolving political and strategic pressures. Previously, proposals from U.S. policy organizations suggested eliminating direct military aid to Israel over a 15-year period, a move that sparked controversy and was initially rejected by Israeli officials. However, current discussions indicate Israel itself supports a planned ten-year phase-out aligned with past agreements.

The existing 2016 MoU, which allocated $38 billion over ten years, focused heavily on advanced aircraft such as the F-35 and F-15EX, as well as aerial defense programs including Iron Dome. Much of this aid has historically been required to be spent on American defense manufacturers, underscoring the close industrial ties underpinning the alliance.

In the wake of heightened security demands following recent conflicts, Israel’s overall defense budget has surged to NIS 144 billion, with calls from the defense establishment to secure additional funds to support long-term military preparedness and technological development. The outcome of the upcoming talks will be pivotal in defining the future of U.S.-Israel defense cooperation amid changing strategic and political landscapes.