Negotiations between the United States and Mexico over the North American trade agreement have intensified as the July 1 deadline for reviewing the pact approaches, but Canada remains absent from current talks, raising concerns about the future of the trilateral United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

Last week, officials from Washington and Mexico engaged in discussions covering key areas such as automotive rules of origin and agricultural trade. However, Canada did not participate in this round, prompting questions about how any bilateral adjustments between the U.S. and Mexico would integrate into the broader three-country framework. The Trump administration has, at times, indicated a willingness to exclude Canada entirely from the agreement.

President Donald Trump has expressed uncertainty regarding whether he will renew the six-year-old trade deal, which replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 2020. While some interpret the president’s position as a strategic negotiating move, it has caused unease among members of Congress representing districts reliant on the USMCA.

Rep. Linda Sánchez of California, the ranking Democrat on the House trade subcommittee, emphasized her support for maintaining the trilateral structure of the agreement. She expressed concern that the administration might abandon the formal pact in favor of bilateral memorandums of understanding, which she argued lack the enforceability and congressional oversight of a legislative trade deal.

USMCA was negotiated during President Trump’s first term to update and replace NAFTA, which he frequently criticized as detrimental to American workers. The agreement combined priorities from both political parties and passed Congress with strong bipartisan backing in 2020. Despite initial support, the administration has become increasingly critical of the pact, attributing persistent trade deficits with Canada and Mexico—two of the United States’ largest trading partners—to the agreement’s terms.

As part of the ongoing review, the U.S. has proposed several amendments, including raising the local content requirement for automobiles from 75% to 82%. Additionally, the administration seeks to introduce a stipulation that at least 50% of a vehicle’s components be sourced specifically from the United States. Proposals also include expanding rules to cover new types of auto parts and setting content requirements in other sectors such as electronics.

Republican lawmakers have sought to strike a balance between supporting the agreement and advocating for improvements. Rep. Adrian Smith of Nebraska, the ranking Republican on the House trade panel, described a renewed USMCA as a mechanism to hold neighboring countries accountable while benefiting American agricultural producers and manufacturers.

As negotiations continue, uncertainty remains over whether the three parties can agree on modifications that preserve the trilateral nature of the agreement and address concerns raised by the U.S. administration. The exclusion of Canada from recent discussions complicates the pathway forward for the region’s principal trade pact.