The United States completed its final military withdrawal from Iraq on September 30, ending nearly two decades of direct troop presence in the country. The last U.S. personnel departed from a base in Erbil, the capital of the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region, marking the conclusion of Operation Inherent Resolve—a multinational coalition effort to defeat the Islamic State (ISIS). The withdrawal follows an agreement reached between the Iraqi government and the Biden administration in 2024 and was carried out by the Trump administration, reflecting a broader U.S. intent to reduce its military footprint in the Middle East amid ongoing regional conflicts, including the war involving Israel and Iran.

At a ceremony in Baghdad, Rear Admiral Liam M. Hulin, who led the joint task force for the operation, described the withdrawal as a historic milestone for Iraq’s sovereignty, emphasizing the country's responsibility in shaping its security future. Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Faleh al-Zaidi echoed this sentiment, stating that the coalition’s mission had concluded but the fight against terrorism would continue under Iraqi leadership. He pledged to consolidate state control over various militias operating across the country, many of which are backed by Iran and have historically resisted government authority.

The departure has prompted a mix of cautious optimism and concern among Iraqis and regional analysts. While some view the withdrawal as a reclaiming of Iraqi sovereignty, others worry about the security vacuum it may create. Iraq’s security forces, trained and supported by the United States for years, face significant challenges in countering the lingering presence of ISIS sleeper cells and managing the influence of armed Shiite militias, which have grown in power and political integration since the U.S. invasion in 2003.

Iran and its allied militias in Iraq hailed the U.S. exit as a victory, with Tehran’s network of proxies expected to gain greater leverage in Iraqi affairs. Political analysts warn that these groups could expand their influence within state institutions, potentially complicating Iraq’s path toward unified governance and stability. This concern is heightened by Iraq’s limited air defense capabilities and the threat of advanced militant tactics, including the use of armed drones.

The Kurdish region, historically a close U.S. partner, has expressed particular unease about its security in the post-withdrawal period. Without American military support and an effective air defense system, Kurdish officials fear increased vulnerability to attacks from Iran-aligned militants and neighboring powers. Additionally, Iraq’s sovereignty continues to be challenged by external actors, including Turkish military operations in northern Iraq and allegations of Iranian involvement in cross-border attacks.

Despite the end of U.S. troop presence, Washington has pledged to maintain a reduced role in Iraq through targeted training, intelligence sharing, and diplomatic engagement. However, the scale of its diplomatic mission has notably decreased compared to the height of the American intervention. As Iraq embarks on this new chapter, many Iraqis remain apprehensive, recalling the instability and violence that followed previous U.S. withdrawals, including the rapid rise of ISIS after the 2011 troop pullout.

The complexity of Iraq’s internal security dynamics, combined with regional geopolitical pressures, leaves the country at a critical crossroads. The success of the Iraqi government’s efforts to assert full control over militias and maintain security will heavily influence the nation’s trajectory in the coming years, amid ongoing tensions between Washington and Tehran and the continued threat posed by extremist groups.