Chevron, the largest U.S. oil company operating in Venezuela, announced plans to expand its activities in the country’s Orinoco Oil Belt, committing over $7 billion in investments over the next five years. The move aims to more than double Chevron’s oil production in Venezuela from 2026 levels to around 600,000 barrels per day.

Chevron has maintained operations in Venezuela since 1923, with current projects including joint ventures such as Petroindependencia and Petropiar SA, focusing primarily on extra-heavy crude extraction. The company’s CEO, Mike Wirth, emphasized Chevron’s longstanding presence and confidence in Venezuela’s substantial oil reserves, which, according to OPEC’s 2025 report, are the world’s largest at over 303 billion barrels—surpassing Saudi Arabia’s estimated 267 billion barrels.

The announcement follows U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent efforts to reengage with Venezuela’s oil sector, including plans to allow U.S. businesses greater access to the country’s resources and even giving the Pentagon a stake in resulting profits. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated the agreement aims to boost private sector confidence in investing directly with the Venezuelan government.

Despite this optimism, analysts remain cautious due to longstanding challenges facing Venezuela’s oil industry. Years of underinvestment and mismanagement have left the country’s energy infrastructure severely degraded, limiting daily production to just over one million barrels—far below the levels produced by other major oil exporters like Saudi Arabia and the United States. Restoring Venezuela’s oil capacity is expected to take significant time and substantial capital expenditures.

Questions have also been raised regarding the legitimacy and durability of the new agreements. Venezuela’s acting president, Delcy Rodríguez, has reportedly granted Chevron 100-year rights to 17 oil fields containing an estimated 65 billion barrels. However, critics note that Venezuela’s constitution requires such arrangements to be approved by the National Assembly, a step that has not occurred. Ian Vásquez, vice president for international studies at the Cato Institute, described the deal as lacking legitimacy due to its negotiation under a government accused of authoritarian practices and electoral fraud.

Concerns persist that future Venezuelan or American administrations could challenge or revoke the agreements, potentially deterring investors. Additionally, other U.S. oil majors, such as ExxonMobil, have expressed continued skepticism about the viability of investing in Venezuela’s oil sector. ExxonMobil’s CEO Darren Woods reiterated in January that the country remains “uninvestable,” and company representatives recently confirmed there have been no changes to this stance.

Venezuela’s oil sector was nationalized first in 1976 and again in 2007 under former President Hugo Chávez, who shifted foreign operations into state-controlled joint ventures. Chevron accepted the terms of nationalization, while others, including ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips, refused, resulting in asset seizures by the Venezuelan government.

Despite these complexities, President Trump has maintained that increased U.S. involvement in Venezuelan oil could help reduce domestic gasoline prices, which have recently risen sharply. The national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline reached $4.12, according to AAA, reflecting a significant increase compared to the previous year. However, energy experts continue to caution that Venezuela’s long road to restoring productive capacity may limit immediate impacts on global supply and U.S. fuel costs.