Despite escalating worries over the state of public finances in the United States, recent data highlights substantial strength within the private sector. Company profits reached a record 13.2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2026, driven by a nominal earnings increase exceeding 50 percent in aggregate. This robust corporate performance has contributed to elevated stock market levels, with Wall Street hovering near all-time highs, generating a positive wealth effect for households. This rise in household wealth is helping to counterbalance the decline in wages, which have fallen to a historic low as a share of national income.
Meanwhile, the U.S. government is grappling with one of its largest budget deficits outside periods of recession, major wars, financial crises, or pandemics. Federal debt recently surpassed the $40 trillion mark, prompting concern among investors about the government’s ability or willingness to control future borrowing. This unease is reflected in the increasing term premium on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes, indicating greater risk perceived by market participants.
In response, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced an intensified bond buyback program aimed at reducing long-term borrowing costs. However, this decision has drawn criticism from some quarters, where it is viewed as potentially undermining the Treasury’s credibility and fiscal discipline.
On the household front, debt levels stand at approximately 66 percent of GDP, the lowest since 1998. Much of this debt stems from low-interest mortgages, while household assets, particularly stock market investments, have grown markedly. This asset growth underpins resilient consumer spending, even amid rising interest rates and increased energy costs.
Corporate debt has increased slightly to 71 percent of GDP but remains near its lowest point in almost twenty years. Although concerns have been raised about debt financing linked to artificial intelligence ventures, companies active in this space appear financially sound and capable of managing elevated borrowing expenses.
Overall, the private sector’s strong earnings and controlled leverage contrast with mounting public debt challenges, highlighting a complex economic landscape in the United States.
