DOHA — U.S. officials have conveyed a pivotal message to Gulf allies and regional partners at the annual Global Security Forum in Doha, signaling a shift toward greater self-reliance in Middle Eastern security amid escalating tensions with Iran.
Tom Barrack, the U.S. ambassador to Turkey and special envoy for Syria and Iraq under President Donald Trump, emphasized that the longstanding security framework of American protection in exchange for regional stability is undergoing significant change. Speaking to gathered security experts and officials, Barrack stated that the traditional U.S. role as the global security guarantor is evolving, and countries in the Middle East need to focus on securing their own interests through regional partnerships.
“America as the guarantor... for the last 80 years, it is no longer there,” Barrack said, describing the shift not as abandonment but as a strategic realignment. He noted that the post-World War II arrangements, which linked U.S. security commitments to access to oil, no longer reflect Washington’s current priorities. Barrack pointed out that Americans are increasingly reluctant to risk lives in Middle Eastern conflicts, and Gulf states recognize that U.S. assurances of their security cannot be guaranteed as before.
In this context, Barrack highlighted emerging defense collaborations such as the recent pact among Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey. However, he acknowledged that navigating this transition comes without a clear precedent: “We don’t have a playbook. We’re all on audibles. We can go one play at a time.” Similar sentiments about the need for regional self-reliance have been echoed by Trump administration officials at security forums across Europe and Asia.
Gulf nations, which unsuccessfully sought to dissuade the U.S. from escalating conflict with Iran, are now confronting uncertainty over Washington’s long-term commitment. Many remain dependent on U.S. military technology and support but question whether they can fully rely on American backing if hostilities intensify.
Barrack also reflected on the consequences of recent U.S.-Israeli military actions. He cautioned that attempts to change regimes in the Middle East—citing Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan—have often had unintended results, underscoring the limits of U.S. power in the region's complex dynamics, which he compared to a Rubik’s Cube.
Despite the message of reduced direct intervention, the Trump administration continues to bolster military presence around Iran. Saudi Arabia, a key regional partner added last year as a major non-NATO ally alongside Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait, is receiving increasing military support as threats from Iran-backed Houthi militants intensify. Missile and drone attacks have targeted critical infrastructure in Riyadh, including the capital’s international airport, fueling concerns over the kingdom’s defensive capabilities. While Saudi Arabia has sought direct U.S. military involvement, Washington has so far confined its role to intelligence sharing and advisory assistance.
Former Biden administration Middle East envoy Barbara Leaf, also present in Doha, observed that while regional actors are diversifying their security partnerships, they still require major powers like the U.S. to help maintain stability. “They do need big partners like the U.S.,” she said, cautioning that it remains unclear how far Gulf states can go in reducing dependence on American support.
Iran analyst Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group noted the mixed signals sent by various U.S. officials have undermined American credibility, prompting regional countries to hedge their bets. “At the end of the day, the United States will remain highly influential and involved in the region’s defense, but it has proven to be clearly insufficient,” Vaez said.
As diplomatic efforts remain stalled and economic pressure on Iran intensifies, Gulf countries are bracing for a possible new phase of military conflict. The evolving U.S. posture reflects a strategic recalibration, underlining uncertainties for both Washington and its Middle Eastern partners.