US and Saudi Arabian airstrikes targeting an Iranian-backed militia group in Iraq have intensified tensions in the Middle East, with analysts warning that the region has entered an “uncharted territory” amid escalating violence. The joint strikes, conducted on July 29 against sites associated with Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), resulted in the deaths of at least 20 fighters and represent a significant development in the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Iran, and their regional allies.
The PMF is a coalition of primarily Shia militias established in 2014 to combat Islamic State militants, many of whose factions maintain close ties to Iran. The group operates as an official part of Iraq’s security apparatus but includes powerful pro-Iran elements. The airstrikes came shortly after a recent lull in US attacks on Iranian targets, signaling a possible end to the brief pause in hostilities. Following the strikes, Iran responded by launching missile attacks on US military bases in Jordan—its first such assault since the temporary ceasefire began.
While US President Donald Trump asserted that the strikes had been coordinated with the Iraqi government, Baghdad strongly rejected this characterization. The Iraqi presidency condemned the attacks as a “blatant violation of Iraq’s sovereignty” and an assault on its official institutions. Iraq’s Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, who had recently met with President Trump, canceled a scheduled meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Jeddah in protest against the airstrikes.
Saudi Arabia’s direct role in the strikes marks a notable escalation in the conflict. Riyadh has reportedly participated in covert operations against Iran in the past, but its overt involvement in Iraq signals a shift in strategy. The move follows increased hostility in the region, including a blockade announced by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen against Saudi ports and shipments at the Red Sea’s entrance. Iran and its allied militias have recently intensified attacks on US and allied facilities across the Gulf, including in Saudi Arabia.
Experts highlight the complexity and unpredictability of the evolving conflict. Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House, noted that Tehran appears to be deliberately leveraging its proxy groups to maintain pressure on Washington amid the fragile ceasefire. She suggested that Iran’s tactics aim to compel the US either toward confrontation or negotiation, particularly to maintain control over the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil shipping route.
From Saudi Arabia’s perspective, analysts interpret the strikes as an effort to demonstrate resolve and counter Iran’s influence in the Gulf. H A Hellyer, a senior associate fellow in Middle East studies at the Royal United Services Institute, stated that Riyadh seeks to dispel any perception of vulnerability by making clear it is prepared to escalate if necessary. However, Hellyer also cautioned that the consequences of the attack on the PMF are unpredictable, as Tehran views itself engaged in an existential struggle and may respond forcefully to recalibrate influence in the region.
The recent developments underscore the fragility of stability in the Middle East, as regional and international actors navigate a conflict characterized by overlapping proxies, strategic rivalries, and fluctuating alliances. With no clear path to de-escalation, analysts warn that the risk of wider confrontation remains substantial.