Tensions between the United States and Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz have escalated following a breakdown of a fragile ceasefire earlier this month. On Sunday night, two tankers operated by the Greek shipping company Dynacom—Kavomaleos and Acheloos—attempted to transit the strait near the Omani coast under cover of darkness but were struck and damaged by Iranian missiles despite increased U.S. air support.

The attacks highlight the complexities faced by Washington in securing safe passage through this strategically vital oil transport route. The Trump administration has sought to maintain flows of oil via the so-called Omani route, which runs along the southern edge of the strait, by deploying air cover and conducting nightly strikes on Iranian military targets along its southern coast. President Donald Trump recently warned that the U.S. would target Iranian infrastructure such as bridges or power plants in retaliation for attacks on vessels in the strait.

However, former naval commanders and maritime industry experts caution that a sustained military campaign to neutralize Iranian missile and drone threats could take weeks, if not longer, to restore confidence among shipping companies. “It’s an impossible conundrum,” said Tom Sharpe, a retired UK naval commander. He noted that reducing the threat to a level that would allow normal traffic is unlikely in the near term.

Iran maintains it must control maritime traffic through the strait until ongoing regional conflicts are resolved. Tehran has demanded that vessels coordinate crossings with Iranian authorities and has targeted ships using routes it deems unauthorized, particularly along the Omani coast. Since the resumption of U.S. strikes on July 8, Iran has attacked at least seven vessels, primarily tankers, employing drones such as the Shahed-136, cruise and anti-ship missiles, and high-speed small boats.

Maritime data indicates that on the recent Sunday, of the 14 vessel transits through the strait, only the two targeted Dynacom tankers bypassed the Iranian-controlled coast. Overall tanker traffic has fallen sharply, from over 90 weekly transits to about 30, according to industry sources, with roughly half of these linked to Iranian vessels involved in sanctioned oil trading.

The attacks on the Dynacom vessels are seen by analysts as a significant deterrent to shipping companies willing to risk routes outside Iranian control. Helima Croft, a commodities strategist, noted that Gulf states, which have more actively sent ships through the strait during the conflict, may reconsider due to increased risks, including potential Iranian retaliation against critical infrastructure like desalination plants.

Compounding the regional challenges, the Iranian-backed Houthi rebel group in Yemen announced a blockade of ships bound for or departing from Saudi Arabian ports, raising concerns about disruptions to oil exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu. The Houthis reported military strikes on two Saudi oil tankers using ballistic and cruise missiles as well as drones. These developments contributed to a surge in Brent crude prices, surpassing $100 a barrel for the first time since May, posing challenges for U.S. efforts to lower fuel costs ahead of upcoming elections.

U.S. military officials indicate that degrading Iran’s missile and drone capabilities will require extensive, sustained air strikes targeting mobile launch platforms, which would push the launch points deeper into Iranian territory and potentially increase interception success rates for U.S. aircraft. Support for these operations includes planned deployments of additional F-16 and F-35 fighter jets in the region.

Despite this, Iranian surveillance capabilities remain effective, utilizing relatively simple maritime radars and concealed missile and drone launch sites on islands and coastal areas. Experts suggest Iran’s strategy aims to be sufficiently disruptive to maintain higher insurance premiums, deterring shipping traffic without necessitating full-scale closure of the strait.

Industry observers express concern that if the U.S. reduces its regional military presence over time, a de facto transit fee regime could emerge, jointly administered by Iran and Oman. Tehran has indicated plans to charge vessels “service fees” for passage, raising uncertainty about the long-term security and viability of the shipping route.

“The big question is where we will be in a year if American forces withdraw or reduce their capabilities,” said one tanker executive. The prevailing assessment is that without a durable political solution, the Strait of Hormuz will remain a flashpoint with significant implications for global energy markets.