The deployment of United States and British nuclear-powered submarines to Western Australia beginning next year is expected to significantly enhance Australia’s deterrence capabilities and alter Beijing’s strategic calculations, according to Scott Morrison, one of the architects of the AUKUS security pact. Speaking ahead of the fifth anniversary of the trilateral agreement, Morrison described the planned rotational submarine presence at HMAS Stirling as marking the start of the pact’s operational phase.
Morrison highlighted that the arrival of up to four U.S. submarines and one British vessel in Western Australian waters would serve as a tangible demonstration of the alliance’s strength. He dismissed concerns that the increased submarine activity might make the base a target, emphasizing Australia’s longstanding relationship with the United States, including decades of shared facilities and defence cooperation.
The AUKUS agreement, established in 2021 between Australia, the U.K., and the U.S., aims to provide Australia with advanced nuclear-powered submarines through a collaborative design effort known as the SSN-AUKUS program. However, Morrison acknowledged ongoing challenges, particularly related to Britain’s progress on the submarine design, which he identified as the pact’s “key hinge point.” He noted that technical and coordination issues among the partners must be resolved to ensure success.
A recent analysis by the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) corroborated these concerns, pointing out that Britain’s submarine industry is under significant strain. The sector is simultaneously tasked with delivering new Dreadnought-class ballistic missile submarines, supporting the Astute-class fleet, and developing SSN-AUKUS vessels, contributing to delays.
The CSIS report also highlighted risks associated with the timeline for U.S. production of Virginia-class submarines, which Australia plans to acquire in the interim before Australian-built SSN-AUKUS submarines are operational. U.S. Navy projections indicate that achieving a production rate of two boats per year may be delayed until 2032, four years later than initially planned. This has raised concerns that if SSN-AUKUS is further delayed, Australia could face the difficult choice of extending the service life of its aging Collins-class submarines or requesting additional Virginia-class boats from the U.S.
Workforce challenges add another layer of complexity. The CSIS analysis warned that Australia’s pool of about 200 tradespeople trained in nuclear submarine work in the U.S. risks losing expertise if submarines are not available for them to maintain and operate.
Diplomatically, the pact faces hurdles with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which must negotiate safeguards before any nuclear materials can be transferred. China’s ambassador to the IAEA recently criticized AUKUS, describing it as a “textbook case of nuclear proliferation,” underscoring the regional tensions surrounding the alliance.
Despite these obstacles, Morrison remains optimistic that the upcoming submarine deployments will serve as a clear message to Beijing that the alliance is both genuine and operational, reinforcing deterrence in the Indo-Pacific region.