Venezuela is reportedly weighing the possibility of leaving the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), a move that could further challenge the cohesion of the oil cartel it helped establish more than six decades ago. According to sources familiar with the matter, discussions about an exit have taken place, including conversations with U.S. officials, but no formal decision has been made.

The potential departure signals a significant political and economic shift in Caracas, particularly in light of recent developments following the ousting of Nicolás Maduro by U.S.-backed forces earlier this year. Since then, Washington has increased its influence over Venezuela’s oil sector, engaging in talks to acquire a substantial stake in the country’s oil fields. These negotiations reportedly include proposals for a long-term lease, possibly spanning 100 years, reflecting an unprecedented level of U.S. involvement in Venezuela’s oil industry.

A White House spokesperson declined to comment on both Venezuela’s possible OPEC departure and the ongoing negotiations regarding the oil fields. Similarly, the Venezuelan Information Ministry did not respond to requests for comment.

Venezuela’s consideration to withdraw from OPEC aligns with U.S. President Donald Trump’s broader strategy of extending American influence in Latin America’s energy markets. This interventionist approach has seen Washington taking direct stakes in various strategic resources and companies abroad, exemplified by recent investments in Ukraine’s mineral and energy sectors.

While Venezuela’s oil output has declined sharply due to years of domestic turmoil and U.S. sanctions—it produced about 1.16 million barrels per day in July, less than half its output a decade ago—production has shown recent signs of recovery. Nonetheless, Venezuela’s diminished current role means an immediate exit from OPEC is unlikely to cause significant disruption to global oil markets, which remain largely affected by geopolitical tensions such as the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict.

However, Venezuela’s exit could undermine OPEC’s unity and influence, which has already been strained by recent departures like that of the United Arab Emirates. Concerns are rising about the organization’s ability to coordinate production and stabilize prices, risking a renewed market struggle similar to the price wars witnessed in 2020.

Some U.S. officials envision a future alliance between Washington and Caracas that could marginalize OPEC’s dominance, allowing Venezuela to ramp up production without adherence to OPEC quotas. This potential freedom from cartel obligations could enable the country to attract greater international investment and accelerate the rebuilding of its oil infrastructure.

The move would also represent a notable shift from Venezuela’s historic role as one of OPEC’s founding members in 1960. The country was instrumental in the cartel’s formation and later in establishing the OPEC+ alliance in 2016, which included non-member producers like Russia to enhance market control. Despite these efforts, OPEC’s influence has diminished due to rising U.S. shale output and new oil discoveries in neighboring countries like Guyana and Brazil.

Relations between Washington and Caracas have evolved rapidly since the transfer of power to acting President Delcy Rodriguez earlier this year. U.S. diplomatic presence has been restored, and major American oil companies, such as Chevron, have expanded their operations in Venezuela through recent agreements. These developments underscore a realignment in Venezuela’s energy sector that could reshape its involvement with OPEC and the broader global oil landscape.