As Victoria’s state election campaign enters caretaker mode on Tuesday, the four major parties have collectively pledged more than $34 billion in spending promises. These commitments come amid growing concerns over the state’s record debt levels and budget pressures.

The Coalition has outlined $8 billion in new spending while projecting $24.8 billion in savings over the next decade. Labor has committed $7 billion to new expenditures and anticipates $2.8 billion in savings. The Greens have announced $9.2 billion in spending proposals, partly to be financed by at least $5 billion in new taxes targeting large corporations. One Nation has promised over $10 billion in spending alongside $5.8 billion in savings, although the party has not provided detailed costings for most of its policies despite access to the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) resources.

Victoria’s net debt reached $160.7 billion by the end of the 2026 financial year. A recent state budget update showed spending overruns of $7 billion and a $5.1 billion shortfall due to declining revenues amid a property market downturn. The financial figures related to election commitments are compiled by the PBO based on parties’ announcements and estimates but are not official costings.

In a campaign largely focused on infrastructure maintenance and transport improvements, both major parties have prioritized these sectors in their funding plans. The Coalition intends to allocate $1 billion toward repairing Victorian roads and $1.7 billion for 25 new hybrid electric trains servicing the Melton and Wyndham Vale lines. Labor’s transport budget, totaling $3.9 billion, directs roughly $3.5 billion to enhancing local road networks. Labor’s largest individual expenditure is a $1.5 billion plan to expand 12 emergency departments statewide.

Premier Ben Carroll’s strategy to find savings includes a $2 billion reduction in spending on the Suburban Rail Loop, delaying the removal of eight level crossings to save $686 million, and cutting consultant expenses. Coalition leader Jess Wilson proposes a public service hiring freeze to recover $22 billion over a decade, aiming to address the state’s $30 billion cumulative cash deficit projected over four years. Wilson faces scrutiny over how her savings measures will restore a budget surplus within six years as she has pledged.

One Nation’s campaign, led by Warren Pickering, has drawn criticism for the lack of transparent costings, despite condemning the spending promises of the major parties. Mark Thompson, the party’s candidate, criticized Labor and Coalition plans on social media last week but offered limited details on One Nation’s own fiscal approach.

Political analysts suggest One Nation could capture several lower house seats and potentially hold the balance of power in the legislative council. Tony Barry, director of RedBridge, said this position would enable the party to influence key policy outcomes, potentially focusing on halting renewable energy projects. Barry noted that Coalition leader Wilson has already consented to two of One Nation’s core policies: repealing the Treaty with First Nations peoples and canceling the VNI West energy transmission line.

“Their impact will depend on where they win seats, as they will seek to deliver for their constituencies,” Barry said, highlighting the potential for One Nation to assert significant influence if it holds the balance of power following the election.