Victorian Coalition MPs have expressed concern over a pre-election campaign launched by the conservative lobby group Advance, warning that its approach could undermine their efforts to secure a majority government in the upcoming November state election. The group’s campaign, which includes a 60-second AI-generated advertisement featuring Premier Ben Carroll alongside former premiers Jacinta Allan and Daniel Andrews, urges voters to “put Labor last,” a message that some Coalition members say conflicts with their longstanding strategy.

Advance began targeting 20 suburban and regional Labor-held seats across Victoria on Monday, framing the initiative as a test run ahead of the next federal election. The campaign, reportedly costing around $350,000, is financed through donations and employs a range of channels including social media, streaming services, mobile billboards, and print media.

Several Coalition MPs criticized the campaign for contradicting their core message that the only way to defeat Labor is to vote directly for Liberal and National candidates. “They’re essentially telling voters the opposite of what we have been telling them for months now,” one MP said, describing the campaign as “bizarre” and unhelpful.

The selection of target seats has also sparked internal unease. Among the 20 electorates Advance is focusing on are several being contested by One Nation, including the marginal seat of Pakenham, where One Nation Victoria leader Warren Pickering is running. Other contested seats such as Bass, Hastings, Melton, and Yan Yean are considered critical for the Coalition’s path to a majority. Some within the Coalition voiced frustration, arguing that Advance’s tactics could inadvertently bolster One Nation’s chances and split the conservative vote, thereby benefiting Labor.

One Liberal source stated that Advance was “not our friends” and accused the group of pursuing its own agenda rather than supporting the Coalition’s efforts. Another echoed this sentiment, highlighting Advance’s previous campaign focus on targeting the Greens federally—a strategy that helped Labor—and now targeting Labor itself at the state level in a way that might advantage minor right-wing parties.

Advance dismissed the Coalition’s criticism as a “galactically stupid misunderstanding” of both the electoral situation and the group’s campaign strategy. A spokesperson pointed to polling data indicating that between 25 and 35 percent of Coalition and One Nation voters may preferencing Labor over each other. The spokesperson argued that the Coalition and One Nation alone do not have the numbers to form a majority government and that Labor is also dependent on preferences.

Electoral analyst Ben Raue commented that while Advance’s messaging is unlikely to aid the Coalition’s bid, it aligns with the group’s broader aim to raise the profile of conservative parties overall, despite potentially complicating the immediate Victorian state contest. Raue noted that the Liberal and National parties are close to winning a majority and are keen to consolidate the conservative vote, which Advance’s campaign might undermine.

In response to questions about Advance’s influence, a Coalition spokesperson reaffirmed their position, stating that “the only way to change the government in Victoria is to vote one for the Liberal and National parties.” The debate highlights growing tensions between the Coalition and conservative advocacy groups in the lead-up to what is shaping up to be a tightly contested election.