The cost of the Western Renewables Link (WRL), a significant transmission project in Victoria designed to support Australia’s renewable energy transition, has sharply increased, raising questions about its financial viability ahead of the state election in November. The project, initially estimated at $1.5 billion, is now reported by developer Brookfield to have a cost of $4 billion, more than 2.5 times the earlier figure.

Brookfield, a US infrastructure investor, disclosed to the US Securities and Exchange Commission that its Australian subsidiary, AusNet, has finalized a commercial framework with the Victorian government and signed a binding construction contract for WRL. This agreement is said to reduce execution risks and offer clearer insight into capital deployment and potential returns. However, details of the commercial framework have not been fully disclosed, leaving uncertainty about how costs and returns will be passed on to Victorian electricity consumers.

Comparisons with similar infrastructure projects suggest the $4 billion figure could be an underestimate. In New South Wales, a 120-kilometre transmission line has been projected to cost about $3.5 billion. Since WRL spans approximately 190 kilometres across western Victoria, its cost is likely to surpass that amount. Moreover, ongoing involvement by the Construction, Forestry, Maritime, Mining and Energy Union (CFMEU) in related projects, such as Snowy 2.0, has accelerated cost increases. The union’s potential role in the WRL project could push expenses beyond $5 billion.

The WRL forms part of a broader transmission network intended to deliver power from the Snowy 2.0 pumped hydro storage facility to Melbourne, aiming to enhance grid stability and support renewable energy integration. However, the project has faced strong opposition from local farmers concerned about land impacts, contributing to delays.

Political leaders in Victoria have responded to these developments by committing to review the project’s costs should they be re-elected. Both the Australian Labor Party government, led by Premier Ben Carroll, and the opposition Coalition leader Jess Wilson, have pledged to hold an inquiry after the November election to scrutinize the financial aspects of WRL before making further decisions. Meanwhile, One Nation has proposed abandoning the WRL and other major transmission initiatives tied to regional renewable energy zones, which could turn the project into a major electoral issue.

The escalating expenses and political uncertainty surrounding the WRL are significant because the project is central to plans for a comprehensive renewable energy transition in Australia, with total costs for the broader program expected to exceed $900 billion once guaranteed returns are included. Critics note that rejecting the WRL may not only prevent Snowy 2.0 power from reaching Victoria’s capital but also stall momentum toward replacing coal-fired generation for another decade or more.