Victoria is set to hold its state election on November 28, 2026, in a contest widely regarded as having significant implications for Australian national politics. Antony Green, a longtime election analyst, described the upcoming vote as potentially more consequential than any state election in his lifetime.

The Labor Party, led by Premier Ben Carroll—its third leader in four years—is seeking an unprecedented fourth consecutive term in Victoria. Meanwhile, the Liberal Party, under Jess Wilson, aims to overcome internal divisions and achieve electoral gains. To form government, the coalition needs to retain all its current seats and gain an additional 16. Complicating the political landscape is the possibility that One Nation, led by Pauline Hanson, could hold the balance of power in the lower house, potentially influencing government formation for the first time in a Victorian election.

The official election period begins on November 3 at 6 p.m., when writs will be issued and the government will enter caretaker mode, limiting major decisions prior to the election. Voter registration closes at 8 p.m. that day. Eligible Australian citizens aged 18 and over who have resided in Victoria for at least one month must be enrolled through the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC). While the AEC manages the electoral roll, the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) administers the election itself. This election is expected to feature the largest voter enrollment in the state's history, with nearly 4.7 million Victorians registered.

Notable changes to the voting process include the abolition of group voting tickets in the upper house, requiring voters to number at least five parties or candidates above or below the line, a shift from the previous system where preferences were directed by parties. The VEC will distribute information guides to over three million households to explain these changes and plans to use electronic systems to mark voters off the roll, a method trialed during recent byelections.

Voting options this election include election day voting on November 28 from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m.; early voting from November 17 to 27, excluding Sundays; postal voting with applications accepted between November 4 and 25; as well as specialized options for voters with sensory or vision impairments, such as low-sensory and braille voting, and telephone-assisted voting. The VEC also plans mobile voting teams to reach hospitals, aged care facilities, homeless shelters, and prisons. Officials anticipate around 60 percent of voters will cast their ballots early.

The VEC faces challenges related to misinformation and disinformation, including content generated by artificial intelligence. Electoral Commissioner Sven Bluemmel acknowledged the commission’s limited role in combatting false claims about candidates or parties, noting there are no laws requiring truth in political advertising in Victoria. The VEC focuses on correcting misinformation related to the electoral process and maintains a public misinformation register. Bluemmel also expressed concerns that misinformation could intensify following the U.S. midterm elections on November 3.

Vote counting is expected to be complex, particularly with the potential for three-way contests involving Labor, the Coalition, and One Nation. Each lower house seat undergoes two counts: an initial first-preference tally and an indicative two-candidate preferred (2CP) count, which projects final preferences but does not determine the outcome. The VEC will withhold publishing the indicative count before election day to avoid influencing voters. Final results often take several weeks, as postal and out-of-electorate votes are counted.

Initial returns are expected from smaller voting centers around 7 p.m. on election night, with larger and early votes trickling in between 9 and 10 p.m. Given the anticipated tight race, a definitive result may not emerge that evening. In the event of a hung parliament—if neither Labor nor the Coalition secures a 45-seat majority—either party will need to negotiate confidence and supply agreements with crossbenchers to form a minority government. Election writs must be returned and results declared by December 19.