The recent escalation in missile strikes on Kyiv highlights a deeper sign of strain within Russia as its military campaign in Ukraine continues. Despite employing advanced weapons, Kremlin efforts to target Ukrainian civilians amid the ongoing conflict suggest underlying weaknesses on the battlefield. After more than two years of its “special military operation,” Russia appears unable to secure decisive ground or air gains, while facing mounting domestic pressures.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s government is navigating these challenges as parliamentary elections for the State Duma approach in about a month. Although these elections are widely viewed as neither free nor fair, they remain one of the few avenues for political expression—albeit tightly controlled by the state. Opposition voices, including the last significant anti-war party Yabloko, have been effectively eliminated. Its deputy leader, Lev Shlosberg, was recently sentenced to 11 years in a penal colony on charges of “discrediting” the armed forces and spreading “false information” about the military. These developments reflect a consolidation of power reminiscent of the Soviet-era model, where limited political pluralism and strict loyalty to the regime are enforced.

The political climate demands unwavering support for the state’s military objectives. Officials and parliamentarians are expected to champion nationalist slogans such as “Russia! Putin! Victory!” Vladimir Putin’s role transcends that of a typical political leader, with the state portraying him as the symbolic embodiment of the nation, echoing Soviet governance traditions.

At the same time, ordinary Russians are grappling with significant hardships. Long queues at petrol stations across Moscow and other cities reveal supply chain disruptions exacerbated by repeated Ukrainian attacks on key infrastructure, including oil refineries and major warehouses. The ongoing strikes have contributed to smoky skyscapes in Russian urban centers and intensified concerns over resource shortages. Notably, Russia’s occupation of Crimea is increasingly tenuous, largely cut off from the mainland, while Russian forces face devastating losses on the frontlines in Donbas, where Ukrainian drone superiority has dramatically reduced the survivability of new recruits.

Casualty estimates indicate thousands of Russian troops have been killed or wounded monthly, deepening domestic grief and raising questions among many about the war’s purpose and prospects for resolution. The conflict’s toll coincides with stringent Western sanctions that have isolated Russia economically, curtailing foreign investment and diminishing consumer options, further straining the population’s standard of living.

Despite occasional signs of frustration on state-run television, official media largely obscures widespread public discontent. The forthcoming Duma elections are unlikely to reflect genuine opposition or dissent, reinforcing the image of a unified state that many believe to be a facade. While the Kremlin projects strength, the underlying dissatisfaction underscores a gap between official narratives and the realities facing millions of Russians.

Putin’s persistence in pursuing the war, despite these mounting challenges both on the battlefield and at home, underscores a high-stakes gamble with uncertain outcomes. Historically and constitutionally, sovereignty resides with the people—a fact that remains at odds with the increasingly authoritarian direction of Russia’s political system amidst this prolonged conflict.