In the lead-up to the state election in Mecklenburg-West Pomerania this Sunday, Social Democratic Party (SPD) leader and incumbent Minister-President Manuela Schwesig is engaged in a high-stakes campaign to prevent the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) from gaining dominance in the northeastern German state. Despite Schwesig’s personal popularity—with approval ratings around 59 percent—polls indicate the AfD is currently ahead, with an estimated 37 percent of the vote compared to 35 percent for the SPD.

Schwesig has governed the state for nearly a decade and remains one of Germany’s few regional leaders who retain significant political authority and public affection beyond their party base. Nevertheless, the rising support for the AfD, which follows the party’s recent electoral success in Saxony-Anhalt, has heightened concerns about the regional and national political landscape.

Although the AfD’s chances of forming a government remain slim due to the likelihood that other parties will refuse to enter into coalitions with it, the momentum behind the populist right is prompting caution among established parties. The outcome in Mecklenburg-West Pomerania is expected to influence Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s fragile coalition, which currently holds power tenuously amid growing political instability.

Schwesig’s campaign has employed creative tactics, including local outreach efforts such as a “bratwurst bus” offering free sausages and a van distributing waffles to connect with voters. These measures have narrowed the AfD’s lead from over ten points to a margin of a few percentage points. However, analysts from the French think tank Le Millénaire estimate a 62 percent probability that the AfD will take first place, while also warning of a 37 percent chance that Schwesig might be unable to secure a governing majority.

At a recent SPD event in Rostock, the state’s largest city, Schwesig urged voters to see the election as a clear choice between her administration and the AfD’s political agenda. She cautioned against allowing the AfD to become the strongest party and appoint the next Minister-President, framing the vote as crucial for protecting democracy. Supporters such as nurse Emily Krahl described the contest as a decisive moment for the future of democratic institutions.

Schwesig’s approach involves three delicate political calculations. Firstly, she has focused on undermining the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its leader, Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who currently commands low approval ratings in the state. The CDU faces a risk of falling below the five percent threshold necessary for parliamentary representation, prompting internal conflicts within the party and some calls for cooperation with the AfD.

Secondly, Schwesig seeks to portray the AfD as a grave but disorganized threat by highlighting links between some party members and extremist backgrounds, including former neo-Nazis and individuals with criminal records. At the same time, she avoids alienating AfD voters broadly, mindful that the party’s lead candidate, Leif-Erik Holm, presents a comparatively moderate face and emphasizes more restrained policy positions on migration.

Thirdly, Schwesig must navigate complex regional attitudes toward Russia. Many voters in Mecklenburg-West Pomerania express a preference for restored economic ties with Russia and peace efforts, even if that stance complicates support for Ukraine. Schwesig acknowledges this tension while maintaining her commitment to Ukraine, despite having formerly been viewed as one of the Kremlin’s more sympathetic German political figures.

As the election approaches, Schwesig’s political future—and her standing within the SPD—hinges on her ability to counter the rising populist challenge and sustain her state leadership amid a shifting political terrain. The results in Mecklenburg-West Pomerania will likely have significant repercussions for Germany’s broader political dynamics.