The United States has experienced an unprecedented stretch of economic expansion since mid-2009, marking nearly 17 years without a significant cyclical recession. This extended period of growth has supported a sustained surge in the stock market and facilitated funding for technological advancements such as artificial intelligence, despite ongoing challenges like rising interest rates, trade tariffs, and global energy shocks.

While this stretch of economic resilience is notable, it differs from the prior era of the “Great Moderation” seen between 1984 and 2007, which was characterized by lower macroeconomic volatility. The current economy remains marked by uneven growth, political uncertainty, rising inflation, and increasing wealth disparities. Nevertheless, market participants and investors have largely dismissed the prospect of an imminent recession.

Much of the economy’s durability may stem from structural factors, including a shift toward a service-oriented economy, healthier corporate and household balance sheets, and quicker legislative and policy responses during economic disruptions. Though the U.S. experienced a recession in 2020 triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic and associated containment measures, its sharp and brief V-shaped downturn was heavily offset by large-scale government stimulus. Many analysts exclude this event when evaluating the longest continuous expansion periods in U.S. history.

Excluding that pandemic-induced recession, the current expansion is the longest since World War II, surpassing the previous postwar record of about a decade-long growth cycle that ended with the dot-com bust. Though the expansion has seen some quarters of slight economic contraction—including one in early 2025 connected to an import surge before new tariffs—none have been followed by the sustained downturns typically defining a recession.

This extended growth period means that up to half of the American workforce, as well as many investors and traders active today, may never have directly experienced a nationwide recession during their careers. Despite periodic worries—such as those during the 2022 inflation surge, recent tariff escalations, and geopolitical tensions in 2024—recession indicators have failed to materialize into full economic downturns.

Recent surveys reflect this sentiment, with only around 5% of global fund managers anticipating a “hard landing” for the U.S. economy over the next year. The absence of recession, coupled with accumulated wealth and savings, has reinforced a widespread investor “buy the dip” mentality, further supported by the prominence of technology giants and the growing prominence of AI-focused companies.

However, analysts caution that stock market downturns do not require an accompanying recession. For instance, major S&P 500 declines in 2015-16, 2018, and 2022 occurred in the absence of recessions, often triggered by monetary tightening, trade concerns, or geopolitical uncertainties. Historically, bear markets have lasted an average of over two years, with recoveries taking about 11 years, underscoring the unique nature of the current prolonged bull market.

Market strategists emphasize that bull markets typically end due to tightening financial conditions, excessive leverage, or significant economic shocks rather than simply aging over time. The ongoing relationship between the U.S. economic expansion and the equity market’s extended rally remains under close observation. Some experts warn that widespread lack of direct recession experience among investors might foster overconfidence and complacency, potentially underestimating the cyclical risks that continue to exist.