Recent global conflicts and environmental changes are causing a reassessment of geography’s critical role in the world economy and international security, experts say. Long-standing assumptions that technology and globalization diminished the importance of physical geography are being challenged as strategic transit points become focal areas of tension and disruption.
Shannon O’Neil, senior vice president of studies and Maurice R. Greenberg chair at the Council on Foreign Relations, emphasized that despite advances in technology, fundamental logistics remain essential. “Stuff still needs to get from here to there,” she said, highlighting the ongoing importance of geographic chokepoints.
Several of these transit points have been at the center of recent instability. Iran’s disruption of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz—the sole sea route to the Persian Gulf and a critical artery for global energy supplies—demonstrates how geographic control can be leveraged for strategic influence. Similarly, the Iranian-backed Houthi militia in Yemen has exerted control over the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a crucial passage at the southern end of the Red Sea.
While oil shipments through the Persian Gulf have resumed, U.S. naval forces continue to provide protection for tankers, underscoring the fragile nature of free navigation in these waters. These flashpoints serve as stark reminders that waterways such as the South China Sea and the Suez Canal retain immense power over global commerce, affecting the livelihoods of millions worldwide.
Climate change is reshaping this geography further by disrupting traditional shipping routes. European rivers like the Rhine and Danube have experienced severe droughts, hampering freight transport and industrial activity and threatening electricity generation in countries reliant on river-cooled nuclear reactors. In Latin America, the Panama Canal’s operations were restricted due to low water levels exacerbated by El Niño, impacting approximately 40 percent of U.S. container traffic.
Meanwhile, rising Arctic temperatures enabled Chinese shipping companies to initiate the first regular commercial voyages across the Arctic Ocean, intensifying strategic competition with the United States, which has shown heightened interest in Greenland’s strategic position.
Experts note that the post-World War II international order, built on rules-based cooperation and mutual benefit, is eroding amid rising confrontation and diminished trust—even among traditional allies. The recent approach by the United States to seize Venezuelan oil reserves exemplifies this shift toward unilateral, winner-take-all policies.
The current geopolitical shifts reflect deeper vulnerabilities inherent in the hyperglobalization era of the 1990s. Both the U.S. and China have exercised control over economic chokepoints—whether the global financial system or critical supply chains like rare-earth metals—while weaker states have sought to weaponize geographical leverage. Iran’s actions in the Strait of Hormuz illustrate how geography can serve as a bargaining chip to monetize trade flow and exert pressure.
As the U.S. presence as guarantor of free navigation appears to wane, other powers have become emboldened. China’s increased military patrols around Taiwan underscore ongoing disputes over strategic maritime claims, while the geographic significance of Ukraine as a pivotal Eurasian crossroads continues to drive conflict.
Hal Brands, a professor at Johns Hopkins University, argues that recent neglect of geography stems from flawed assumptions that geopolitical rivalry had diminished and that innovation had overcome geographic constraints. He contends that geography will play an increasingly central role in shaping international conflicts and economic competition moving forward.
These dynamics are prompting efforts to develop alternative infrastructure, such as new pipelines, and advances in technology and trade policies that could redraw economic and military maps over the long term. As the established global framework fragments, geography’s enduring influence is expected to become even more pronounced in determining the nature and outcome of emerging struggles.