Australia’s alpine regions are facing one of the poorest starts to the ski season in recent years, with minimal natural snow accumulation and forecast conditions showing little improvement in the coming fortnight. This development poses significant challenges for ski resorts and related businesses relying on winter tourism.

Since the official opening of the ski season over the June long weekend, major snowfields including Perisher Valley in New South Wales and Falls Creek in Victoria have experienced consistently above-average temperatures. Nighttime lows rarely dropped below freezing, while daytime highs climbed into double digits Celsius, well above historical averages. Perisher, for example, recorded just one night below 0°C between June 9 and last Friday, with daily highs ranging from 4.9°C to 11.2°C, compared to the June average maximum of 4.3°C. Falls Creek went 12 consecutive nights without an overnight freeze, with temperatures only recently falling below its June average of 2.7°C.

These warm conditions have resulted in virtually no fresh snowfall, with resorts depending primarily on limited man-made snow coverage to sustain operations. At Thredbo, only a narrow strip of artificial snow remains, nicknamed “the glacier,” yet it is insufficient to replicate natural powder or support full resort activity. Ski instructor Tom Gille described the situation as “pretty dire,” noting that businesses from ski schools to eateries and accommodation providers are all suffering financial losses.

Compounding the challenges is the Bureau of Meteorology’s declaration earlier this week that an El Niño event has commenced, which is forecast to be among the strongest since 1950. El Niño typically brings warmer and drier weather to eastern Australia during winter, reducing the likelihood of consistent snowfalls necessary for a successful season. When cold fronts do move through alpine areas, elevated temperatures often result in rain rather than snow, further exacerbating the decline in snow cover.

Tour operators dependent on winter visitor demand are also grappling with uncertainty. Jared Malcolm, who runs the Sydney-based Urban Legends Tour Company and specializes in Snowy Mountains tours, has already cancelled all June excursions and is hesitant to commit to additional non-refundable accommodation costs amid poor snow conditions. Despite strong bookings initially, the lack of snow and warm, rainy weather have forced him to scale back operations, projecting significant revenue losses if adverse conditions persist.

While concerns run high, industry experts note that slow season starts have occurred in past years without necessarily predicting poor overall outcomes. Historical data shows seasons such as 2017, 2015, and 1991 experienced minimal snow cover in late June but saw substantial snowfall and depth increases later in winter. However, the severity of this year’s dry conditions and the strength of the El Niño event temper optimism.

With schools across Victoria and New South Wales approaching their winter holidays, the coming weeks will be critical for resort viability. Operators remain cautious, hoping for a late-season snow boost to offset the mounting financial pressure but acknowledge the risks posed by the current climate trends.