Prisons in England and Wales face a critical shortage of space by November if the government abandons its planned early release scheme, according to Sir David Gauke, the former justice secretary who chaired the independent review that proposed the policy.

The early release programme, designed to alleviate overcrowding in the prison system, would allow certain prisoners to be released halfway through their sentences, rather than after serving two-thirds, provided they have maintained good behaviour. Under current guidelines, even individuals convicted of serious offences such as manslaughter, rape, and child grooming are eligible, while those convicted of less severe crimes may be freed after serving just one-third of their sentences. The plan anticipates releasing more than 5,000 offenders in monthly groups starting from September 2.

The scheme has encountered significant opposition following revelations that two men convicted of manslaughter in the killing of Pc Andrew Harper were due to be freed early. Pc Harper died in 2019 after being dragged behind a vehicle while investigating a theft. The disclosure prompted a public outcry, including condemnation from Harper’s widow, Lissie Harper, who described the prospect of early release as “deplorable.” In response, Prime Minister Andy Burnham announced a pause to the rollout until a full review is completed to ensure public safety.

Sir David acknowledged the concerns raised about releasing serious offenders early and indicated there might be room for “narrowly focused” exemptions, particularly concerning violent criminals who have attacked police officers. However, he stressed the difficulty of drawing clear lines that would avoid controversy without significantly increasing prison numbers.

In a series of posts on the social media platform X, Sir David outlined that reforms to sentencing—from longer sentences to later release dates—had not been matched by increases in prison capacity, precipitating an urgent capacity crisis in 2024. The emergency early release scheme was initially implemented to address this issue. He cautioned that running prisons at full capacity undermines efforts toward rehabilitation and reduces the system’s flexibility to respond to fluctuations in crime rates.

Neither Downing Street nor the Ministry of Justice has provided a timeline for when the early release scheme might be reintroduced, emphasizing that any decisions will depend on the ongoing government review.

Meanwhile, pressure continues to mount from members of parliament, victims’ groups, police forces, and prison staff to exempt the most serious offenders—particularly killers, rapists, child groomers, and those convicted of severe violence against emergency workers—from early release under the scheme. The government faces the challenge of balancing the need to prevent overcrowding with ensuring public safety and maintaining confidence in the criminal justice system.