Farmers across Europe are warning of significant declines in crop yields and rising food prices as severe drought, heatwaves, and wildfires affect agricultural production. The combination of extreme weather conditions has already led to substantial losses in a variety of crops, prompting concerns about supply shortages and increased costs.

In France, the vegetable growers association Légumes de France reported losses amounting to thousands of tonnes of produce, valued in the tens of millions of euros. Salad leaves, carrots, leeks, garlic, and onions have all been severely impacted, with some crop yields expected to be halved due to insufficient rainfall. Olive groves have also been affected, putting upward pressure on already high olive oil prices. The heatwave has further delayed grape development in key wine-producing regions such as Bordeaux and Burgundy. Meanwhile, Champagne producers anticipate their earliest harvest on record, likely starting around August 15—roughly a month earlier than in previous decades—with yields projected to be about 10% lower than last year.

On a wider scale, the European Union has revised down its harvest forecasts for several major crops. Sunflower production, a key source of cooking oil, is expected to drop by 7%, grain maize by 6%, and yields of potatoes and soybeans have been cut by 3%.

In Spain, the ministry of agriculture predicted a decline in cereal output from 24 million tonnes in 2023 to just over 18.5 million tonnes this year, a projection issued prior to the impact of devastating wildfires. Although Spanish farmers have adapted better than some peers through drought-tolerant crop varieties and irrigation practices, they have still faced significant challenges. The agricultural body ASAJA noted that orchards, vineyards, and greenhouses have suffered damage from fires, while heat and water shortages have hampered production of tomatoes and maize. ASAJA emphasized that the primary concern is rising production costs rather than restrictions on exports.

Olive oil producers across southern Europe are also contending with the effects of extreme heat, drought, and wildfires, which have damaged groves in Greece, Italy, and Portugal. Trees near fire zones have been exposed to ash and poor air quality, and pest outbreaks have increased due to the hot conditions. Prices for extra virgin olive oil, which remain above £7 per litre in UK stores, have shown signs of rising again after a prior decline from a two-year price spike. Industry experts warn that if weather conditions do not improve, costs are likely to continue climbing this autumn as fruit yields diminish.

The UK’s harvest has also suffered from dry conditions, leading wholesalers to import vegetables such as iceberg lettuce and broccoli from Spain and other countries. Jason Bull, managing director of UK food importer Eurostar Commodities, said winter harvests across many regions remain reasonable but summer crops are heavily threatened by drought and high temperatures during flowering, which reduce yields and may affect grain quality. Irrigated crops generally fare better, but increasing water demand and possible irrigation limits pose ongoing risks.

Turkey stands out as a positive exception, with a cool and wet spring supporting record-high winter crop yields and favorable prospects for summer crops. Italy likewise anticipates a 10% increase in wheat output used for flour in baked goods, according to European Commission forecasts, buoyed by improved yields. Romania has also experienced a better harvest after several years of drought.

Overall, Europe’s agricultural sector faces mounting pressures from weather extremes, which threaten food production volumes and contribute to upward price pressures across multiple staple crops.