The recent conflict involving Iran has underscored the global importance of developing domestic clean energy sources, though the long-term impact of this crisis on accelerating the renewable energy transition remains uncertain. Xavier Barbaro, chief executive of renewable energy firm Neoen, described the ongoing turmoil as a stark reminder of the value of green, local, and competitive energy but cautioned that the momentum generated by previous shocks, such as the war in Ukraine, may wane over time.
Neoen, with nearly two decades of experience constructing solar and wind farms and installing large-scale battery systems worldwide, including in France, Australia, Finland, and Japan, emphasizes the cost-effectiveness and rapid deployability of renewables as key to enhancing energy sovereignty. Barbaro stressed that demonstrating renewables as the cheapest and fastest means of energy production — alongside their domestic industrial benefits — is crucial for sustained growth.
The energy crisis has resulted in diverging responses from different regions. Some countries, notably in northeast and southeast Asia, have increased coal consumption as an alternative to natural gas. According to consultancy Rystad Energy, the Asia-Pacific region is projected to burn an additional 150 million tonnes of coal by 2030, following a 2025 consumption level of approximately 7.26 billion tonnes. Similarly, North American countries like the United States and Canada expanded fossil fuel production to satisfy internal demand and enhance export capacity. Other nations, including Germany, Brazil, and South Korea, provided financial assistance to fossil fuel consumers through subsidies and price controls.
Environmental organizations such as Climate Action Tracker criticized these short-term policies, labeling them as largely counterproductive because they perpetuate dependency on fossil fuels. Conversely, there has been a marked increase in consumer adoption of solar panels, electric vehicles, and home battery systems in various countries, ranging from Pakistan and Australia to parts of Africa. India notably added 2.7 gigawatts of rooftop solar capacity in the first quarter of 2024, more than doubling its previous quarterly amount. The United States similarly recorded robust residential solar installations, achieving nearly 1.2 gigawatts in the same period, along with a 6 percent growth rate.
The Philippines emerged as the second-largest importer of Chinese solar panels during the first months of the year, simultaneously accelerating over 20 major renewable energy projects, including solar, wind, and hydroelectric developments, to counteract instability in the oil and gas markets.
Several governments have reiterated or strengthened commitments to renewables. Countries like the UK, members of the European Union, and South Korea continue to support clean energy development, with renewables surpassing coal in power generation in many regions last year. However, countries such as China illustrate a complex approach by simultaneously increasing coal power capacity while emphasizing renewable energy, nuclear power, and environmental priorities in their latest five-year plan.
More than 25 nations, alongside the EU, have introduced new policies and investments aimed at clean energy and electrification, according to the Global Energy Crisis Policy Monitor. Nevertheless, experts suggest the effect in Europe has been less transformative compared to the post-Ukraine war period. Lord Adair Turner, co-chair of the Energy Transitions Commission, expressed cautious optimism that the current crisis will provide at least a moderate boost to the transition, especially in Asia, while noting that it remains too early to determine if it will constitute a major turning point.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts approximately $2.2 trillion will be invested globally in 2024 into renewables, nuclear, energy storage, low-emission fuels, efficiency measures, and electrification—roughly double the amount destined for fossil fuels. Notably, about three-quarters of the investment planned for 2026 was already committed before the recent conflict, complicating the assessment of the war’s direct influence.
While the IEA anticipates an overall renewed interest in domestic energy sources, including renewables, nuclear power, and coal, the broader implications for climate policy are significant. André Corrêa do Lago, president of the upcoming UN COP30 climate talks, described the situation as a critical moment, with governments facing heightened urgency in making energy decisions.
Looking ahead to COP31, scheduled to be hosted by Turkey, Minister Murat Kurum has proposed setting a voluntary global target for electricity to account for 35 percent of energy consumption by 2035, an increase from the current 20 percent. Turkey itself is expanding coal-fired power plants but is also rapidly deploying wind, solar, and battery storage infrastructure. Kurum highlighted that countries with established renewable capacity offer better protection for citizens against rising fossil fuel costs, citing tangible financial benefits for households with rooftop solar or electric vehicles.