Water levels in reservoirs across Sri Lanka have dropped significantly, with more than 80% of these water bodies holding less than half their full capacity, government officials reported. The decline has prompted authorities to urge citizens to conserve water and avoid activities that exacerbate soil dryness, such as setting forest fires.

D. P. Wickramasinghe, Secretary of the Agriculture, Livestock, Land and Irrigation Ministry, detailed that around 170 small tanks managed by the Agrarian Development Department have completely dried up. The department's assessment, which covered approximately 13,000 minor irrigation tanks, revealed that about 57% of these have water capacities below 27%, while an additional 24.5% have between 25% and 50% capacity. Only 4% of tanks were found to be more than three-quarters full.

In larger reservoirs, water volumes averaged around 34%, according to Dr. K. Welikepolage, Director General of the Irrigation Department. He provided district-specific data: nine major reservoirs in Ampara held about 22% capacity; Anuradhapura’s 10 reservoirs stood at 45%; Badulla’s seven reservoirs at 38%; Batticaloa’s four at 25%; Hambantota’s 10 at 33%; Kandy’s three at 61%; Polonnaruwa’s four at 37%; Puttalam’s two at 63%; Trincomalee’s five at 26%; and Mannar’s four at 34%. Despite the low levels, Dr. Welikepolage indicated that existing water volumes remain sufficient for ongoing Yala season cultivation and for drinking water supplies until further rainfall occurs.

Reservoirs under the Mahaweli Authority, which include major systems such as Udawalawa, Maduru Oya, Moragahakanda, and Kala Wewa, currently have about 49% of their capacity filled, said Deputy Director K.L.I.C. Kariyawasam. He added that the upper river basin reservoirs, managed by the Water Management Secretariat and used for power generation, hold approximately 63% capacity. Overall, about 3,000 million cubic meters of water remain available in the Mahaweli system, out of a total capacity of 5,489 million cubic meters.

Meteorological officials have linked current water shortages to developing climate patterns influenced by one of the strongest El Niño events on record. According to A. L. K. Wijemann, Director General of the Meteorology Department, the World Meteorological Organization forecasts that this El Niño will persist with near certainty until February 2027. Combined with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, these conditions are expected to bring heavy rainfall to parts of Sri Lanka during October to December, though the overall rainfall distribution remains unpredictable.

Sri Lanka is transitioning from the southwest monsoon to the second inter-monsoon period, with a typical "monsoon break" causing temporary cessation of rains. Consequently, scattered evening showers are forecast in Eastern and Uva provinces, including Monaragala, Badulla, Ampara, and Batticaloa. The southwest monsoon is projected to end by the end of September.

The Meteorology Department cautioned that after this period, rainfall may decrease sharply from January to March next year, accompanied by rising temperatures that could trigger severe hot and dry conditions. Officials noted that surface water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean have increased significantly, potentially affecting global weather patterns differently by region.

The ongoing dry spell has had a profound social impact, with the Disaster Management Centre reporting over 96,000 people affected by water scarcity as of last Friday. Affected communities encompass 29,584 families across 28 Divisional Secretariat Divisions in the Ampara, Badulla, Batticaloa, Monaragala, Polonnaruwa, and Ratnapura districts. Monaragala district has the highest number of affected families, totaling 11,751. Authorities continue to monitor the situation and emphasize water conservation and hazard prevention to mitigate the crisis until more consistent rainfall returns.