A decade after Belarus launched its sole communications satellite, manufactured by China and deployed from a Sichuan spaceport, concerns are mounting over Beijing’s expanding role in global conflicts, particularly in relation to the war in Ukraine. Ukrainian intelligence suggests that Belarus’s satellite, integrated into China’s growing space network, supports Russia by enhancing the precision and coordination of its missile strikes across Ukrainian cities.

Recent attacks underscore the escalating violence. In the past 48 hours, Kyiv has endured two major Russian offensives involving 35 missiles and 185 drones, resulting in at least nine civilian deaths. Notably, Russian forces conducted their first known strike on an American-owned drone factory in Kyiv. Additionally, a cruise missile previously landed in Poland, a NATO member, heightening fears of the war spilling beyond Ukraine’s borders.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has accused North Korea of preparing to send up to 30,000 troops alongside new missile launchers to support Russia’s campaign. He emphasized that North Korea’s involvement, which Moscow allegedly coordinates with Beijing’s consent, poses a global threat by enabling Pyongyang to gain combat experience and improve its weaponry. More broadly, Russia increasingly depends on China for critical machine tools, microelectronics, and weapons components. European Union officials have claimed that China supplies approximately 80% of parts used in Russian armaments and facilitates up to 90% of sanctioned technology imports, often purchasing goods through third countries while officially maintaining neutrality.

China’s position as a self-proclaimed neutral actor contrasts with reports of deepening military cooperation with Russia. Sources indicate that Chinese troops receive training in drone operation and urban combat on Russian soil. Leaked documents suggest bilateral discussions have included strategies to disrupt Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite network and exchanges of artificial intelligence for battlefield data.

The conflict’s reach extends beyond Eastern Europe. Iran, a pivotal member of an autocratic alliance building drones used against Ukraine, allegedly receives satellite imagery, intelligence, and dual-use materials from China. Recently, Beijing reportedly delivered mobile air defense missile launchers to Iran amid American and Saudi military actions against Iranian-backed groups in Iraq. This support complicates ongoing efforts by the United States to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East.

Around the globe, similar patterns emerge. Russia exploits political instability in African nations using mercenaries and disinformation campaigns. Meanwhile, in the United States, former President Donald Trump has expressed skepticism about the scale of threats posed by Russia, China, and Iran despite intelligence indicating their cooperation against American forces.

Western governments continue to aid Ukraine with arms, funding, and intelligence, yet some caution about underestimating China’s ambitions. Concerns have been raised following a UK court decision allowing China to construct a significant embassy in London, situated near critical financial and internet infrastructure. Pro-democracy activists warn this could increase risk of surveillance and intimidation, citing threats from Beijing against dissidents abroad.

The current geopolitical tensions evoke comparisons to the prelude of the Second World War, as historian Richard Overy notes, with interconnected conflicts reshaping the global order long before 1939. Analysts argue that today’s struggles, spanning continents and involving multiple authoritarian regimes, reflect a similarly complex challenge that may define this era’s historical legacy.