Tesco’s chief executive, Ken Murphy, has attributed recent fluctuations in UK grocery sales more to weather conditions than to the ongoing World Cup or geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The supermarket giant reported that sales growth in the UK more than halved during a rainy spring period, which contrasted sharply with the prolonged sunshine experienced last year.

Murphy indicated that sunny weather encourages households to dine and celebrate together more frequently, thereby increasing grocery spending. Conversely, he noted that the persistent rain this spring had a greater dampening effect on sales than major events such as England’s World Cup games or the conflict in the Middle East, despite the latter contributing to ongoing economic uncertainty for many consumers.

During England’s recent matches, Tesco’s fast-track grocery delivery service, Whoosh, saw a 40% sales increase around the England-Croatia game and even stronger activity in Scotland around the country’s victory over Haiti. Specific product sales surged, with Irn-Bru, a popular Scottish soft drink, rising by 50% and canned cocktail sales climbing 185% before the game. Nonetheless, Murphy emphasized that these spikes were relatively modest compared to the impact of seasonal weather variations.

Market research echoes a subdued outlook for retail sales related to the World Cup. Analysts at GlobalData estimated that football fans could contribute approximately £267.7 million in retail spending ahead of England’s next match, with nearly £70 million projected to be spent in pubs and other venues. However, data from the Euro 2024 tournament, where England finished as runners-up, suggests the net effect on supermarket sales is likely to be minimal. Circana, a market research firm, pointed to ongoing cost-of-living pressures and widespread discounting as key reasons that households are unlikely to significantly increase spending on food and drink despite major sporting events.

For the quarter ending in May, Tesco reported a 1.8% increase in comparable UK sales to £13.4 billion, falling short of the previous quarter’s 4.2% growth and below market expectations of 2.3%. Online sales were a bright spot, rising by 8.9%, while overall group sales grew 1% to £16.8 billion.

Murphy acknowledged that consumer confidence remains fragile, influenced by fears stemming from the Middle East conflict, which has contributed to rising petrol prices and potential future increases in household energy costs. Despite these concerns, the company has yet to observe significant shifts in shopping behavior. He also noted that slowing grocery inflation, including price reductions in commodities like coffee and cocoa, and proactive measures by food producers to manage energy costs, have helped temper price pressures.

Tesco has continued to expand its value offerings, extending its commitment to match Aldi prices on over 2,000 items in smaller Express stores and launching more than 500 new products. The company’s Booker wholesale division experienced a 3.2% decline in sales, reflecting challenging conditions for independent retailers and catering businesses.

Despite these mixed results, Tesco maintains its profit guidance for the year. Analysts expect the retailer to report a profit of approximately £3.25 billion for the current financial year. In the previous year, Tesco’s profits rose 8.5% to £2.4 billion alongside a 4.3% increase in sales to £66.6 billion, driven by strong growth in its UK market.