The Conservative Party has seen a modest rise in polling figures following its recent conference in Birmingham, with new leader Kemi Badenoch attributing the boost to fresh policy proposals and a change in party direction. A YouGov survey conducted between October 11 and 12 showed the Conservatives increasing their support by three points to 23 percent, placing them just behind Labour’s 24 percent and ahead of Reform UK for the first time in two years.

Badenoch revealed plans to abolish inheritance tax on family homes and extend free childcare to parents earning up to £100,000, policies that appear to have contributed to what some analysts describe as a “conference bounce.” This reflects a broader trend toward a return to two-party dynamics, with Combined Conservative and Labour support rising to 47 percent, up from 33 percent in May.

Despite the uplift for the Conservatives, the poll indicates a highly fragmented electorate. With Reform UK holding 21 percent and other parties such as the Liberal Democrats and Greens trailing behind at 12 and 11 percent respectively, the likelihood of a clear majority government remains uncertain.

Polling data also suggested that Badenoch’s leadership has improved the party’s appeal among previous Conservative voters, who remain largely loyal, while drawing some support from former Reform supporters. Labour, under leader Andy Burnham, experienced a decline in support after a recent conference boost, slipping three points from 27 to 24 percent, comparable to levels seen after Burnham’s election earlier this year.

Badenoch described the poll results as “just the beginning,” expressing confidence that the party’s momentum would continue. She acknowledged past errors made by the Conservatives and emphasized her commitment to presenting a pragmatic alternative to Labour and Reform.

In response, a Reform UK spokesperson dismissed claims of significant Conservative change under Badenoch, arguing that the party remains entrenched with figures responsible for past governance issues. Reform strategists have expressed concern over the continued decline in their support since last summer, noting the party’s lowest recorded YouGov score since the post-general election period.

The political landscape remains fluid, with ongoing speculation about a potential snap general election. Prime Minister Andy Burnham has publicly denied plans for an early ballot despite Conservative preparations, which include election strategy meetings, a draft manifesto, and targeted campaign visits by Badenoch.

Overall, the latest polling snapshot highlights a competitive environment on the right, with the balance of power between the Conservatives and Reform UK shaping the outlook for forthcoming elections but leaving no clear indication of an immediate shift in government control.