China’s military modernization poses complex challenges to Australia’s security, prompting ongoing debate over defence policy and strategy. While discussions often focus on the scale of Australia’s defence spending and initiatives such as the AUKUS partnership, there is less consensus around the specific nature and scope of the threat from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

Distance remains a critical factor limiting China’s ability to project force against Australia. Beijing is significantly farther from Sydney than from many other strategic locations, such as Berlin. This geographical reality constrains China’s military options, particularly when compared to its posture toward Taiwan, which lies just across a narrow strait from the Chinese mainland. China’s PLA has developed extensive missile, air, and naval capabilities focused on the Taiwan Strait, enabling rapid and concentrated force deployment in that region. In contrast, only a fraction of those forces can reach Australia due to the vast expanse of ocean separating the two countries.

Nonetheless, China’s increasingly capable long-range systems present growing risks. These include naval vessels able to undertake extended, oceanic operations, long-range bombers, and missiles with intercontinental reach. In 2022, Australia experienced a demonstration of these capabilities when a Chinese naval flotilla circumnavigated the continent, conducting live-fire exercises off New South Wales. The PLA’s ocean-going navy has been evolving for over 20 years and currently operates three aircraft carriers, with U.S. assessments projecting as many as nine in the future. An expanding fleet of large amphibious ships also signals Chinese intent to undertake far-reaching missions beyond regional waters.

China’s nuclear-powered submarine program, capable of sustained deployments worldwide, remains an area of mixed indicators. There is no consensus on whether a significant expansion in nuclear submarine production is imminent, although construction of modern vessels continues. Ballistic missile developments have extended to weapons potentially capable of striking northern Australia, particularly if deployed on artificial islands in the South China Sea. Reports also suggest China may have deployed an intercontinental ballistic missile with a conventional warhead able to target any point within Australia from mainland bases, though such claims lack full verification.

China’s aviation capabilities for long-range strikes remain a relative weakness. Ballistic missiles, while costly, can deliver limited payloads over great distances. Bombers provide a more persistent and substantial strike capacity. Speculation surrounds China’s efforts to develop a stealth bomber similar to the U.S. B-2, known as the H-20, although its existence has not been publicly confirmed. Alternatively, China is advancing in long-range unmanned aerial systems, potentially leapfrogging crewed stealth bombers with drone technologies.

A further constraint on sustained Chinese operations in the region is the lack of overseas military bases. Without forward basing, China’s air and naval assets must expend substantial resources returning to home ports for refuelling and resupply, limiting their operational persistence. Reports indicate China has pursued support from Pacific Island nations for potential military footholds near Australia, a development that has factored prominently in Australian government diplomatic efforts under Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who is seeking to counterbalance Beijing’s regional influence. Should China establish military bases in Australia’s vicinity, it would significantly complicate Australian defence and intelligence operations.

Beyond direct military threats, China’s expanding power challenges Australia’s security interests by contesting U.S. influence in the Indo-Pacific. Marine Corps Lieutenant General Stephan Skalenka recently characterized China as a comprehensive rival to the United States across nearly all dimensions of national power, underscoring the strategic implications for Australia as a close American ally.

As China’s military capabilities continue to grow, experts emphasize the necessity for Australia to ground its defence debates in measured assessments that avoid alarmism and complacency. Understanding the specific capabilities and limitations of the PLA—and their implications for Australian security—is central to formulating effective policy responses. The rise of China’s military represents a fundamental shift in regional security dynamics, marking the most significant strategic challenge to Australia since the Cold War’s end.