What the changing face of Melbourne’s eastern suburbs could mean for Victoria’s state election

By the Editorial Team · Monday, October 26, 2026

Tom Zheng, owner of Grain Asian BBQ in Melbourne’s Box Hill Central, is facing financial strain due to rising rents and labor costs, highlighting challenges for small businesses in a key election battleground. With nearly half of Box Hill’s population being of Chinese descent, political parties are increasingly targeting these communities amid growing concerns over public safety and local infrastructure ahead of Victoria’s state election.

Tom Zheng, who has run the Grain Asian BBQ restaurant in Melbourne’s Box Hill Central for nearly two decades, faces uncertainty about his business’s future amid rising operational costs. Arriving in Australia in 1989, the year of the Tiananmen Square massacre, Zheng joined a wave of Chinese migrants settling in Box Hill, drawn by affordable housing and opportunities. Today, his business occupies three separate spaces within the shopping centre, yet he says high rent and labour expenses are placing significant pressure on small enterprises like his. Zheng advocates for increased support through subsidies and stronger tenant protections.

Box Hill and several eastern Melbourne suburbs—including Glen Waverley, Ashwood, Ringwood, and Bayswater—are key battlegrounds in Victoria’s state election scheduled for next month. Currently held by Labor with narrow margins, these electorates are crucial for the Coalition, which must reclaim at least 16 seats to form a majority government. Former Labor strategist Kos Samaras, now of polling firm Redbridge, attributes the seats’ transformation from traditional Liberal strongholds to diverse, more competitive districts to demographic shifts, particularly the growing Chinese-Australian population.

In Box Hill, people of Chinese ancestry constitute nearly 47% of residents, with adjacent electorates like Ringwood and Glen Waverley also hosting substantial Chinese communities. Political parties appear to be targeting these voters through engagement on social media platforms commonly used within the community, such as RedNote. Associate Professor Jing Qi of RMIT University notes that politicians have increasingly participated in cultural events and addressed local concerns like public safety and infrastructure via these channels. The Coalition, for instance, recently pledged funding for a childcare centre in Bayswater on RedNote, while viral social media content has highlighted local issues such as a pothole near a Labor campaign sign in Box Hill.

Public safety emerges as a pressing concern among Chinese-Australian residents. Zheng, who identifies as a swing voter, expressed apprehension about theft and community safety during a recent visit from Premier Ben Carroll to Box Hill Central. Similar worries are voiced by local business owners such as Leon Chan, operator of a children’s play centre in Nunawading within the Ringwood electorate, who has installed additional security measures amid several attempted break-ins in his neighbourhood. Chan doubts prompt police responses and criticizes the government’s prioritisation of large infrastructure projects over local maintenance, such as pothole repairs.

While Victoria’s overall crime rate, adjusted for population growth, declined by 3.8% in the year ending June 30, public perception remains a concern in these electorates. Long-term Box Hill resident John West plans to support Labor, citing education and healthcare, but criticises the party’s economic management and opposes the opposition’s position on the state’s treaty with First Nations peoples. Samaras suggests that Labor’s significant infrastructure investments—including level crossing removals, the Suburban Rail Loop, and the North East Link—may have initially consolidated support but now contribute to a sense of voter dissatisfaction due to escalating state debt, projected to reach $199 billion by 2030.

Liberal candidate Nick McGowan, contesting the Ringwood seat after relinquishing a secure upper house spot, acknowledges that discontent with Labor does not guarantee a Coalition win. He emphasizes the need for the opposition to demonstrate credibility and follow through on promises to gain electoral support in Melbourne’s eastern suburbs.

This article was reported by synthesizing coverage from multiple independent news outlets to present a balanced, unbiased account. Read about our editorial standards. Spotted an error? Let us know.