What will determine the outcome of the Israeli election?

By the Editorial Team · Wednesday, October 21, 2026

Israel’s general election on October 27 approaches amid deep polarization and uncertainty, with voters divided over issues like national security, judicial reform, and religious influence. Despite criticism of the current government’s policies and judicial changes, it maintains strong support, leaving the opposition’s ability to form a stable coalition in question.

As Israel approaches its general election scheduled for October 27, the political landscape remains highly uncertain, with voter preferences difficult to predict amid a complex and polarized environment. The current government, which has faced significant criticism for actions perceived as undermining democratic institutions and for its role during the conflict on October 7, 2023, continues to be a formidable presence in the race despite widespread concerns.

Traditionally, analysts have operated under the assumption that voters and political parties act rationally, casting ballots in alignment with their perceived best interests. However, the rise of populism and the deep national trauma experienced in recent years have challenged this notion, blurring the lines between rational and emotional voting behavior in a society as diverse as Israel’s.

A recent survey conducted by the Viterbi Family Centre for Public Opinion and Policy Research at the Israel Democracy Institute offers insight into the prevailing voter priorities. The findings highlight a nationwide deterioration in public confidence, particularly regarding democratic governance, national security, economic conditions, and social cohesion.

Among Jewish Israeli voters, foreign affairs and security concerns dominate electoral considerations, with right-wing voters especially focused on these issues. Conversely, Palestinian citizens of Israel prioritize personal security in light of rising homicide rates within their communities and perceived insufficient police response.

For voters who align with left-wing parties, religious influence in public life is the primary concern, cited by 39 percent of respondents in that segment. When combined with the 22.5 percent who emphasize the importance of parties’ positions on judicial reform, it becomes evident that this group is chiefly motivated by the defense of Israel's liberal democratic character against increasing religious legislation and perceived government encroachment on judicial independence. The ongoing debate over the military conscription of ultra-Orthodox men remains a related and unresolved issue.

Despite the current government’s controversy and the criticism it faces regarding judicial reforms and changes to the balance of powers, it retains considerable support across various voter groups. This persistence raises questions about whether the opposition can achieve enough electoral gains to form a stable, long-lasting coalition or if the existing coalition will maintain power through the next term.

As election day nears, the interplay of security concerns, religious influence, democratic values, and social cohesion continues to shape the priorities of Israeli voters, making the final outcome difficult to forecast.

This article was reported by synthesizing coverage from multiple independent news outlets to present a balanced, unbiased account. Read about our editorial standards. Spotted an error? Let us know.