Global wheat buyers are facing higher costs as the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to disrupt grain shipments from the Black Sea region, a key export hub. The fighting and subsequent attacks on vessels and port infrastructure have severely limited cargo movements since July, causing wheat prices to surge and raising concerns about renewed food inflation, particularly in import-dependent regions across Asia, the Middle East, and Africa.
Top wheat-importing nations that typically rely on the Black Sea supply have struggled to secure adequate volumes amid the stalemate. Many buyers delayed seeking alternatives in the hope of an imminent agreement permitting grain exports from the region, but local stocks are increasingly depleted, especially in Asia, according to traders and milling industry sources. Competition for limited cargoes is expected to intensify through the end of the year, prior to the Southern Hemisphere harvest, potentially pushing prices even higher.
Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, described the Black Sea as a vital grain shipping corridor. He noted that the inability to source wheat from this region forces buyers to turn to other suppliers, driving up costs.
The export volumes from Russia and Ukraine have dropped sharply. Russian wheat shipments are projected to fall to around 1 million tons in September, down from 5 million tons a year ago, while Ukraine’s exports are estimated at approximately 1 million tons this month—half the level seen last September, according to data from Kpler. This shortfall has particularly impacted Asia.
Ishan Bhanu, agricultural analyst at Kpler, observed that very few ships are currently loading wheat from the Black Sea and that the limited exports primarily serve buyers in the Middle East and Africa, with scant supplies directed to Asia. Indonesia, the world’s second-largest wheat importer, has received only about 60,000 tons from the Black Sea this September, compared to half a million tons in the same period last year. As a result, Indonesian millers are increasingly procuring wheat from alternative sources such as Argentina and Australia, facing price premiums of 20% to 25% over previous Black Sea contracts.
Black Sea wheat from Romania is currently priced around $340 per ton C&F for Southeast Asia, while Australian Premium White wheat for October shipment stands near $345 per ton—approximately 25% higher than Black Sea wheat before the disruption began. Industry participants have noted the difficulty in passing these increased costs fully onto consumers.
Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, is also experiencing drastic reductions in shipments from Russia and Ukraine. The country’s imports for September and October are expected to be less than 10% of the volumes received during the same timeframe last year. Egyptian Supply Minister Sherif Farouk has indicated efforts to diversify suppliers, turning to France and other European exporters. However, many Egyptian millers are hesitant to fully switch due to preferences for familiar wheat varieties and available domestic stocks.
According to Alexandria-based trader Hesham Soliman, mills in Egypt are currently operating at about 30% capacity as they await a potential resolution to the conflict. Market participants remain wary that if a deal to reopen Black Sea shipments is reached, wheat prices could decline sharply by as much as $50 to $60 per ton.
Overall, global wheat markets remain under significant strain from the prolonged conflict, with limited supply options and sharply rising prices posing challenges for food security in many vulnerable importing countries.