The UK government is intensifying contingency planning in response to potential disruptions stemming from the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran, particularly concerning the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This vital maritime chokepoint, located about 12,000 kilometers from the UK by sea, serves as a critical passage for global oil and goods shipments. Its closure poses a significant threat to supply chains and consumer markets in the UK and beyond.

An internal government exercise, codenamed "Turnstone," has been developed to anticipate the worst-case scenarios resulting from prolonged closure of the Strait, which could extend through June or longer without resolution in US-Iran negotiations. The exercise takes into account not only the direct impacts on fuel supplies but also the secondary effects, such as shortages of industrial gases essential to food production and preservation.

One key concern is an imminent carbon dioxide (CO2) shortage. CO2 is widely used in the UK food industry, including in carbonating beverages, stunning animals for slaughter, and extending the shelf life of perishable goods. The conflict has disrupted supplies from a domestic CO2 production plant, prompting the government to restart a previously mothballed bioethanol facility in northern England that produces CO2 as a by-product. This move follows warnings from industry experts that shutting the plant had increased the UK’s reliance on CO2 imports, a vulnerability now exposed by the ongoing crisis.

The disruption has broader implications for British consumers. Economic indicators point to rising inflation, with the rate increasing from 3.0% in February to 3.3% in March, and forecasts suggest it could climb to 4% within the year. Fuel prices have surged, with wholesale energy costs driving an 8.7% monthly increase in petrol prices by mid-March. Airline fares have also begun to rise due to escalating jet fuel shortages, leading to flight cancellations and higher baggage fees. Farmers report fertilizer scarcity, which threatens to boost the prices of key agricultural products such as milk and crops, potentially leading to shortages on supermarket shelves by summer.

The war’s ripple effects have extended to the mortgage market as well. The average two-year fixed mortgage rate in the UK rose sharply, from 4.83% before the conflict to approximately 5.87%, increasing monthly repayments significantly. Concurrently, numerous mortgage offers have been withdrawn as lenders adjust to heightened market volatility.

The unfolding situation highlights the vulnerability of global "just in time" (JIT) supply chains, which rely on precisely timed deliveries with minimal buffer stock to reduce costs. Experts emphasize that while JIT logistics are efficient under stable conditions, they are particularly susceptible to disruptions caused by unforeseen events such as geopolitical tensions.

For example, imported fresh produce like tomatoes undergo complex, tightly scheduled transit processes, often traveling from countries such as Morocco to UK supermarkets in a matter of days. Any delay along this chain—from harvesting to customs clearance—can jeopardize product quality and availability, with repercussions for both suppliers and consumers.

Industry analysts suggest that rising global instability, including wars, pandemics, and climate-related disruptions, is forcing governments and businesses to reconsider the balance between efficiency and resilience in supply chains. As these events become more frequent, the UK and other nations face growing pressure to strengthen their preparedness for future shocks to critical trade routes and commodity supplies.