An analysis of Iran’s evolving military posture highlights enduring regional security concerns amid ongoing negotiations over a potential U.S.-Iran nuclear agreement. According to Salem Alketbi, a political analyst based in the United Arab Emirates, the mere prospect of an accord—whether it materializes or not—does not fully capture the complex dynamics shaping Iran’s long-term strategic ambitions and military capabilities.
Alketbi emphasizes that Iran’s approach to security is anchored in a doctrine that relies heavily on strategic depth, a network of proxy forces, and an arsenal of missiles and drones, rather than a conventional air force. This triad forms the cornerstone of Tehran’s national defense and regional influence, representing not just physical assets but existential guarantees for the regime. Consequently, any period of reduced hostilities or sanctions relief should be understood as temporary phases that Iran uses to regroup and strengthen these critical capabilities.
The analyst identifies three key trajectories that will dictate the timing and scale of Iran’s military resurgence. Financially, Iran’s ability to regain solvency depends on effects surrounding sanctions relief, unfreezing of assets, and renewed oil revenues—factors intrinsically linked to the negotiations over a nuclear agreement. Industrially, missile and drone production is expected to rebound more quickly than many anticipate; despite previous airstrikes targeting facilities, technical know-how remains intact, allowing for reconstruction within months to a couple of years rather than a decade.
The third, and most protracted, track is the restoration of Iran’s proxy network across the region, which hinges on rebuilding human alliances and operational bases in war-affected areas. This phase could extend over several years, with the convergence of financial resources, manufacturing capacity, and proxy force reconstitution likely occurring in the middle to latter part of this decade if each element progresses steadily.
Looking beyond timing, Alketbi argues that the character of the next conflict with Iran will evolve. Tehran may adopt tactics involving further decentralization of production and deployment sites—possibly underground or within civilian areas—complicating efforts to conduct preemptive strikes. Additionally, it may prioritize the mass deployment of low-cost drone swarms designed to overwhelm missile defenses, shifting the strategic equation toward cost-efficiency in warfare.
Given these threats, Alketbi outlines three critical areas for regional and allied preparedness. First, defensive systems must balance effectiveness with sustainability, as current missile interception technologies are costly and risk depletion. Developing low-cost defense layers is essential to maintain long-term resilience. Second, preventive strikes targeting Iran’s military infrastructure should be timely and recurring rather than deferred, a strategy often summarized as “mowing the grass,” primarily advocated by Israel and key partners. Third, curbing the flow of financial resources, technology, and supplies essential to Iran’s military-industrial complex remains paramount, with the inspection and sanction mechanisms tied to any agreement playing a pivotal role in delaying or restraining Tehran’s rearmament.
The analysis cautions against perceiving Iran’s military buildup as purely reactive to regional adversaries’ actions. Instead, Tehran’s expansionist agenda drives ongoing rearmament, with preparations for future conflict rooted in intrinsic regime objectives rather than external provocations. In this view, failure to sustain pressure or readiness is likely to embolden Iran rather than restrain it, underscoring the imperative for comprehensive and sustained countermeasures across diplomatic, economic, and military domains.