An analysis of recent federal data reveals significant differences in earnings among college graduates, influenced by both choice of major and institution attended. The findings highlight disparities that could inform prospective students, policymakers, and higher education institutions about the financial outcomes of various degree programs.
The data, compiled by the HEA Group from federal tax records, tracks students who graduated during the 2017-18 and 2018-19 academic years and received federal financial aid. It shows that graduates from highly selective institutions—such as Ivy League schools, M.I.T., Stanford, and UCLA—tend to dominate the upper end of the earnings spectrum, especially in majors like computer science, mathematics, and electrical engineering. For example, the highest median salary among all programs was reported for mathematics graduates at Duke University, with earnings approaching $300,000 four years after graduation.
The analysis also identifies surprising income variations within similar fields and between institutions. History majors earn over $50,000 more than English majors four years post-graduation on average. Meanwhile, some prestigious programs like those at Juilliard, a renowned music school, have median graduate earnings that do not exceed those of the median high school graduate, though Juilliard projects earning improvements for future cohorts.
Nursing programs at lesser-known California schools, including California State University, East Bay, San Francisco State University, and Samuel Merritt University, reported median salaries nearing $150,000, placing them among the top 100 out of approximately 25,000 bachelor’s degree programs nationwide analyzed. This contrasts with traditional quantitative and science-focused programs at institutions like Caltech and Cornell.
The data also suggest that the reputation and selectivity of an institution can significantly affect earnings. For some majors, such as mechanical engineering, the difference in median earnings between graduates of top-tier universities and less selective schools may be modest—around $10,000—but in computer science, this gap can exceed $150,000.
These findings arrive amid new federal regulations tied to college affordability and accountability. Under legislation passed in 2023, programs at institutions where median earnings for graduates consistently fall below those of high school graduates will risk losing eligibility for federal student loans. The Department of Education excludes programs with fewer than 30 graduates and graduate students from this assessment. Critics argue that earnings alone do not capture the full value of higher education, citing benefits like social mobility, career networks, and non-monetary contributions to society.
Mary Caraccioli, a spokeswoman for Juilliard, underscored this perspective, advocating for accountability frameworks that consider diverse measures of educational value instead of relying solely on income. Other institutions, such as Indiana University and the University of Miami, did not provide comments on the impending federal evaluation framework.
Despite expected pushback, the majority of U.S. colleges and universities satisfy current earnings benchmarks, with only about 2 percent likely at risk of noncompliance. Experts note that attending selective schools often yields higher earnings and better career opportunities, particularly for underrepresented groups, as these institutions facilitate access to influential networks and employers.
Michael Itzkowitz, founder of the HEA Group and former director of the College Scorecard, emphasized the importance of earnings data, stating that financial outcomes are a crucial aspect of evaluating the return on investment in higher education. He noted that few would choose to attend college only to earn less than the average high school graduate, highlighting the value of transparency for students making critical educational decisions.