The NATO summit set to begin Tuesday in Ankara is expected to be relatively low-profile as European members review their progress toward increased defense spending targets and China observes closely from afar. However, uncertainty looms over U.S. President Donald Trump’s demeanor at the gathering, with questions centering on whether he will adopt a cooperative stance or resume his previous confrontational rhetoric toward the alliance.

In recent weeks, Trump has reignited criticism of NATO, highlighting the financial burden the United States shoulders compared to other member states. On social media, he accused other members of benefiting from U.S. defense expenditures "without getting any benefit," describing the arrangement as “ridiculous.” This volatile approach has contributed to unease among the alliance’s 31 other members, who remain cautious ahead of the Ankara summit.

Several key agenda items are anticipated, notably the evaluation of NATO members’ progress toward defense spending goals of 5% of GDP by 2035, a commitment established at last year’s summit. Some European officials have advocated for a faster timeline to achieve strategic autonomy by 2030. However, this conflicts with the Trump administration’s own timeline, which, analysts note, may be shaped by the U.S. presidential election cycle in 2024.

Additional challenges for the alliance include bolstering Europe’s defense production capabilities amid shortages caused by conflicts such as the war in Ukraine and tensions involving Iran, though Iran itself is not expected to be officially addressed during the meeting. Officials will also discuss ongoing support for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia and efforts to reduce European reliance on U.S. military backing while maintaining a united front within NATO.

Observers note that European bureaucratic complexities, particularly within the European Union's defense structures, remain a hurdle for cohesive policy implementation. “It’s kind of a potluck dinner where everyone has to bring a dish,” said a former U.S. NATO representative, underscoring the necessity of contributions across various fronts to maintain alliance cohesion.

While not participating directly, China is closely monitoring the summit, keen to interpret any shifts in U.S. policy and alliance dynamics. Analysts suggest Beijing will scrutinize the manner in which the Trump administration pressures NATO allies and their responses, viewing these interactions as indicators of U.S. strategic priorities. A potential U.S. pivot from Europe to the Asia-Pacific could result in a more focused American presence in the region, arguably intensifying competition with China. Conversely, Trump's unpredictable leadership and skepticism toward multilateral frameworks have, at times, weakened Western alliances, potentially benefiting Beijing.

Chinese analysts are also attentive to NATO’s position on security issues related to Iran, the alliance’s stance on Russia—a close partner of China—and any collaboration with Asia-Pacific partners such as South Korea, Australia, Japan, and New Zealand. Despite some speculation, experts largely discount the possibility of NATO expanding its reach into the Asia-Pacific region, given the alliance’s prevailing challenges in Europe.

At last year’s summit in the Netherlands, NATO sought to appease Trump by agreeing to the 2035 defense spending targets, with a split between direct military expenditures and other related infrastructure. This year, European members hope that increased defense procurement involving U.S. contractors might temper Trump's criticism. Nevertheless, Trump has recently voiced frustration with several NATO countries, particularly Spain, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Italy, accusing them of reluctance to support U.S. initiatives regarding Iran and labeling some members as seeking a “free ride.”

A potential mitigating factor for tensions may be Trump’s personal rapport with Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the host of this year’s summit. Trump cited this relationship as a primary reason for his attendance in Ankara and suggested he might take actions favoring Erdogan during the event.

Many analysts express cautious optimism that the summit will avoid major confrontations or public disputes reminiscent of past incidents, such as the 2019 fallout over the proposed U.S. purchase of Greenland. They hope for a summit resembling a “normal Thanksgiving dinner,” where discussions remain civil despite underlying tensions. However, the unpredictability of Trump’s behavior ensures that many remain on alert for possible disruptions throughout the negotiations.