Israel conducted an airstrike on the Abu Al-Duhur airbase in Syria’s Idlib province on Tuesday, damaging the runway but causing no reported casualties. The attack drew condemnation from both Damascus and Ankara, with the Syrian Foreign Ministry labeling it an “unjustified act of military aggression” and Turkey joining in the denunciation.

Israel confirmed the strike, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stating that Syrian forces were close to breaching an agreed security status quo by permitting Turkish troops to deploy at the airbase near Aleppo, despite repeated Israeli warnings. The Saudi Foreign Ministry also condemned the strike, calling it a “blatant violation of international law and the sovereignty of Syria.”

Since the fall of President Bashar al-Assad in December 2024, Israel has intensified a campaign aimed at degrading Syria’s military capabilities. Israeli forces have targeted air defense systems, radar installations, weapons depots, and naval facilities, with military officials estimating that 70 to 80 percent of Syria’s strategic military assets were rendered inoperative within the first 48 hours of the campaign. Israel has framed these strikes as measures to prevent advanced weaponry from falling into hostile hands.

Analysts interpret the recent airstrike as a message to both Damascus and Ankara that Turkish involvement in Syria does not protect military infrastructure from Israeli operations. Syrian political analyst Bassam Suleiman suggested that Israel views the evolving Saudi-Turkish-Pakistani Makkah Joint Defense Agreement, signed earlier this month, as a growing regional threat and is signaling its intent to remain a dominant security actor, particularly in Syria.

Fadel Abdul Ghany, executive director of the Syrian Network for Human Rights, described Israel’s actions as an effort to prevent the restoration of a Syrian military order that could limit Israel’s freedom of movement, restore conventional Syrian capabilities, or allow hostile regional actors to operate near the Golan Heights. He noted that Turkish military support could expedite Syria’s reconstruction of a coherent military force, which Israel views as unacceptable.

Following Assad’s ouster, Israel seized control of strategic locations including Mount Hermon and the Syrian side of the 1974 disengagement demilitarized zone, establishing multiple military positions. Israel’s security footprint in southern Syria has expanded into parts of Deraa and Suweida, where it has also sought closer ties with local Druze communities. In 2025, clashes between Druze and Bedouin tribes precipitated Israeli strikes on Syrian government targets, underscoring the volatility of the region.

Abdul Ghany emphasized that while Damascus may seek to reduce the risk of confrontation, it cannot realistically expect Israel to allow unrestricted military rebuilding. He recommended adherence to the 1974 Disengagement Agreement, full access for the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF), and effective measures to prevent armed non-state actors near the Golan as necessary steps toward deconfliction. He rejected Israeli claims to broader authority over Syria’s military development outside the limited parameters of the 1974 framework, characterizing Israel’s approach as a practical, if informal, policy of capability denial.

The growing Turkish presence complicates the security dynamics further. Abdul Ghany warned that excluding Turkey’s role could transform Syria into a contested arena of Israeli-Turkish rivalry, potentially undermining efforts to stabilize and reconstruct Syrian institutions.

For the Syrian government, the challenge lies in balancing the need to avoid direct military confrontation with Israel while retaining sovereignty and rejecting imposed limitations on its armed forces. For Israel, the ongoing question remains whether maintaining its strategic advantage will require continued prevention of Syria’s military recovery and political normalization.

As southern Syria becomes a focal point of competing Israeli and Turkish interests, prospects for negotiated security arrangements and deconfliction mechanisms remain uncertain. Direct Israeli-Syrian talks have stalled, and both Israel’s entrenched military presence and Turkey’s expanding role indicate that the region could become an arena for further strategic competition.