Conservative MP Scott Aitchison’s announcement that he will resign at the end of 2026 marks the eighth departure from the Conservative caucus within a year, raising questions about the stability of Pierre Poilievre’s leadership of the party. The succession of resignations reflects ongoing challenges within the Conservative ranks as they navigate their role in opposition.
Despite surviving a significant electoral defeat and internal pressures—including former Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s recent endorsement of Prime Minister Mark Carney—the Conservative Party is experiencing a notable attrition of MPs. Poilievre’s hold on leadership appears increasingly tenuous, yet no clear successor has emerged to replace him.
Political analysts suggest that the reluctance to assume the leadership stems from the difficult position any new leader would face. With Carney holding a strong personal approval rating of 64 percent and implementing policies that closely align with conservative principles under a Liberal banner, it has become challenging for the opposition to clearly differentiate itself. A prospective leader would need to redefine the party’s identity beyond simply promising to do better than the current government—a task complicated by ideological divisions within the party.
Unless Prime Minister Carney calls an early election—a move that currently seems unlikely—Poilievre or any potential new leader will have to lead the opposition through what may be an extended period of limited parliamentary influence. Conservative support remains significantly behind the Liberals by approximately 17 percentage points, a gap attributed less to dissatisfaction with Poilievre and more to Canadians’ approval of Carney’s government.
Fundraising trends also play a critical role in shaping the party’s prospects. Traditionally, the Conservative Party has outpaced the Liberals in fundraising, but momentum has slowed since the 2025 federal election. While the Conservatives raised more than $28 million before last year’s vote, recent quarterly data reveal the Liberals closing the gap, trailing by less than $700,000 in the second quarter of 2026. Some observers believe that diminishing financial support could prove decisive in the party’s future leadership dynamics.
Within the caucus, few members appear eager to take on the opposition leader’s role under current conditions. Bowmanville-Oshawa North MP Jamil Jivani has expressed intentions to build his own following, but most colleagues show little interest. The position, while central to Canada’s parliamentary democracy, is viewed as politically unappealing amid a government enjoying strong public confidence and relatively few effective challenges.
As the Conservative Party confronts internal fractures and faces a government with sustained public support, the question of who will lead the party forward remains unresolved. For now, Poilievre continues to hold the reins, maintaining leadership largely because no other contender is willing to assume what many perceive as the most difficult job in Canadian politics.