As Russia enters the fifth year of its conflict with Ukraine, President Vladimir V. Putin faces mounting internal and external challenges despite his continued resolve to pursue the war. Russian military advances have slowed considerably, while the economic and social strain at home has increased. Meanwhile, Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory have targeted critical infrastructure, including e-commerce warehouses and oil refineries, leading to frequent disruptions and raising public anxiety.

Last week, CIA Director John Ratcliffe made an uncommon trip to Moscow, reportedly warning Russian intelligence officials of the deteriorating military and economic situation and urging a peace agreement. However, Kremlin officials, including spokesman Dmitri S. Peskov, reiterated that peace talks remain stalled, with no new initiatives forthcoming.

Analysts point out that while Russia contends with growing difficulties, Putin believes Kyiv’s position is even more precarious. Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin, noted that Putin aims to outlast Ukraine by maintaining pressure, expecting Kyiv to eventually collapse if Russia holds firm. This calculation comes amid Ukraine’s dwindling military resources and critical shortages in air-defense systems, compounded by the depletion of Western missile interceptors and reports of Russia sourcing ballistic missiles from North Korea.

Despite limited battlefield gains—only about 68 square miles since June—Russia has escalated attacks on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure and military production, a strategy experts say Putin hopes will break Ukrainian resistance during the winter months. At the same time, Russia struggles on the domestic front with persistent gas shortages, repeated attacks on major logistics hubs of companies like Wildberries and Ozon, and increasing public dissatisfaction. Support for the military campaign in Ukraine has declined to its lowest level since the conflict began, according to recent polling by the independent Levada Center.

Economic pressures are mounting as well. Higher taxes implemented to fund the war effort have strained household finances, prompting some Russians to withdraw cash to avoid digital payments, which have been hampered by internet instability. Within Russia’s political and economic elite, muted criticism has emerged; notable figures such as Sberbank chief Herman Gref and Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin have voiced concern about the toll of protracted war and militarization on the Russian economy. The firing of Vnesheconombank’s chief economist Andrei Klepach, who spoke publicly about Russia’s economic decline and the resilience of Ukraine, signaled the Kremlin’s unwillingness to tolerate dissent.

Ahead of parliamentary elections next month—the first since the invasion—authorities have intensified repression of opposition voices, including banning the antiwar party Yabloko from participating. This move underscores Kremlin concerns about potential electoral unrest amid increasing public discontent.

Internationally, some experts urge renewed diplomatic efforts. Thomas Graham, a Russia specialist in the administration of former President George W. Bush, called for a sustained U.S.-led push to negotiate an end to the conflict, suggesting that despite ongoing escalation, elements within the Russian political elite may favor a resolution in the near future.

In public appearances, Putin has emphasized the need for national unity in the face of what he describes as foreign attempts to undermine Russia. Recent visits to contested territories and symbolic historical sites have reinforced his narrative of resilience and territorial sovereignty. At a congress of the ruling United Russia party, Putin linked the worsening Russian domestic situation to increased Ukrainian attacks, denouncing Kyiv leadership in stark terms and appealing for continued Russian perseverance to achieve victory.